USDJPY TECHS: Corrective Cycle Still In Play
- RES 4: 126.26 3.382 proj of the Dec 3 ‘21 - Jan 4 -24 price swing
- RES 3: 125.86 High Jun 5 2015 and a major resistance
- RES 2: 125.28 High Aug 12 2015
- RES 1: 123.20/125.09 High MAr 30 / High Mar 28 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 121.46 @ 16:41 GMT Mar 31
- SUP 1: 121.18 Low Mar 31
- SUP 2: 120.95 Low Mar 24
- SUP 3: 120.00 Round number support
- SUP 4: 119.65 20-day EMA
USDJPY remains well below Monday’s trend high of 125.09. The move lower this week has resulted in a print below initial support at 121.97, Mar 28 low, as well as 121.32, the low from Mar 30. Short-term weakness is considered corrective and is beginning to allow a recent extreme overbought condition to unwind. An extension lower would open 120.95, the Mar 24 low ahead of the 120.00 handle. Key resistance and the bull trigger is unchanged at 125.09.
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GBPUSD TECHS: Bearish Threat Still Present
- RES 4: 1.3670/49 200-dma / High Jan 13 and a key resistance
- RES 3: 1.3662 High Jan 20
- RES 2: 1.3643/44 High Feb 18 / 10
- RES 1: 1.3487 Low Feb 15 and a recent breakout level
- PRICE: 1.3308 @ 17:10 GMT Mar 1
- SUP 1: 1.3273 Low Feb 24 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 1.3240 Low Dec 22
- SUP 3: 1.3174 Low Dec 20
- SUP 4: 1.3163 Low Dec 8 and a key support
GBPUSD continues to trade above recent lows. A bearish threat remains intact following the move lower on Jan 24 and attention is on last week’s low of 1.3273. Recent weakness has resulted in a breach of key support at 1.3358, the Jan 27 low. 1.3301, 76.4% of the Dec 8 - Jan 13 rally has also been probed. A clear break would strengthen bearish pressure and open 1.3163, Dec 8 low and a key support. Initial firm resistance is seen at 1.3487.
PIPELINE: $4B American Express 3Pt Launched
$4B Amex 3-parter lion's share of $14.4B expected to price Tuesday
- Date $MM Issuer (Priced *, Launch #)
- 03/01 $4B #American Express $1.75B 3Y +80, $500M 3Y SOFR+93, $1.75B 5Y +100
- 03/01 $3B *European Investment Bank 7Y SOFR +32
- 03/01 $3B #Schwab $1.5B 5Y +90, $500M 5Y FRN/SOFR+105, $1B 10Y +120
- 03/01 $2.5B #Capital One $1.25B 4NC3 +115, $1.25B 4NC3 FRN/SOFR, 8NC7 +160
- 03/01 $1.15B #Duke Energy Carolinas $500M 10Y +115, $650M 30Y +145
- 03/01 $750M #CME Group 10Y +98
US: Texas Primaries Kicks Off Midterm Season
The 2022 midterm election season begins today with the Texas primaries- the first election since GOP state lawmakers enacted the new voting restrictions which Democrats attempted to roll back earlier this year.
- The two trends to watch today are the strength of the progressive wing of the Democratic party and the power of Trump to dictate the trajectory of the GOP.
Key races:
- 28th Congressional District (Democrat Primary)
- Progressive Democratic Jessica Cisneros is challenging conservative nine-term Democratic Rep. Henry Cuellar.
- Cisneros is 28 and supports progressive policies initiatives like Medicare for all, the Green New Deal, and free public college. She is endorsed by key progressives Senators Bernie Sanders (I-VT), Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), and Rep Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY).
- Cuellar leans right on abortion rights and immigration issues and is currently subject to an FBI probe. This race will indicate whether a perceived pivot back to the middle-group by Biden will be supported by Democrat voters.
- 15th Congressional District (Democrat Primary)
- Incumbent Democrat Rep. Vicente Gonzalez has decided to run in the safe 34th district so the 15th is an open and competitive district, although predicted to lean slightly Republican.
- Progressive and moderate Democratic candidates are running and the 15th will be another examination of the electability of progressive wing of the Democratic party.
- Governor's race (Republican Primary)
- Trump endorsed Republican Governor Gregg Abbott is running for a third term but is being challenged by more conservative candidates. Polls have Abbott in strong position and he has raised a campaign war chest of USD$65 million. This race should indicate the strength of Trump endorsements in the face of grassroots pushback.
