USDJPY TECHS: Corrective Cycle Extends
- RES 4: 154.00 3.382 proj of the Jul 14 - 21 - 28 price swing
- RES 3: 153.52 2.236 proj of the Jan 16 - Mar 8 - Mar 24 price swing
- RES 2: 152.20 3.00 proj of the Jul 14 - 21 - 28 price swing
- RES 1: 150.78/51.95 High Nov 17 / High Oct 21 ‘22 - major resistance
- PRICE: 148.36 @ 16:48 GMT Nov 20
- SUP 1: 148.10 Low Nov 20
- SUP 2: 147.43 Low Oct 3 and key support
- SUP 3: 145.91 Trendline support drawn from the Mar 24 low
- SUP 4: 144.45 Low Sep 1
USDJPY traded sharply lower Monday as the pair extended the pullback from 151.91, the Nov 13 high. Support at the 50-day EMA, at 149.19, has been cleared. The clear break of this EMA strengthens a short-term bearish theme and signals scope for a deeper correction, towards 147.43, the Oct 3 low. The primary trend direction remains up. A resumption of gains would refocus attention on 151.95, the Oct 21 2022 high.
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AUSSIE 10-YEAR TECHS: (Z3) Medium-Term Trend Direction Cemented Lower
- RES 3: 96.160 - High Jul 20
- RES 2: 96.050 - High Sep 4 and a key resistance
- RES 1: 95.924 - High Sep 15
- PRICE: 95.265 @ 16:16 BST Oct 20
- SUP 1: 95.175 - Low Oct 20
- SUP 2: 95.102 - Lower 3.0% Bollinger Band
- SUP 3: 94.488 - 1.0% 10-dma envelope
The Aussie 10yr futures broader trend direction is down, with prices returning lower still into the Thursday close. Key support and the bear trigger at 95.660/95.670, the Aug 17 low/Jun 17 2022 low has been breached, confirming the resumption of the medium-term downtrend. The focus is on 95.102, the 3.0% Lower Bollinger Band. Initial key resistance has been defined at 96.050, the Sep 4 high.
ITALY: S&P Affirm Italy at BBB, Outlook Stable
- *S&P: ITALY 'BBB/A-2' RATINGS AFFIRMED; OUTLOOK STABLE (BBG)
- The following commentary was attached to the report:
- "By 2025, S&P project that Italy's real GDP growth will recover to above 1%, helped by accelerated deployment of the Next Generation EU funds, which we believe will likely extend beyond 2026"
- "Economic growth will decelerate in 2023 and 2024 on the back of rising private sector savings, tightening credit conditions, slowing manufacturing, and weakening global trade: S&P"
USDCAD TECHS: Bullish Trend Structure Remains In Place
- RES 4: 1.3920 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 3: 1.3862 High Mar 10 and a key resistance
- RES 2: 1.3805 High Mar 24
- RES 1: 1.3786 High Oct 5 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 1.3701 @ 17:06 BST Oct 20
- SUP 1: 1.3569 Low Oct 10
- SUP 2: 1.3559 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 1.3417 Low Sep 29
- SUP 4: 1.3381 Low Sep 19 and a key support
The USDCAD trend outlook is unchanged and remains bullish. The pair remains above the 20- and 50-day EMAs. The 50-day average intersects at 1.3559 and marks a key short-term support. A clear break of this average would signal scope for a deeper correction. Sights are on 1.3786, the Oct 5 high. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and open 1.3862, the Mar 10 high.
