PIPELINE: Corporate Debt Issuance Surge, Tempers Early Tsy Support
Jan-06 13:52
Surge in corporate issuance expected as dearth of December supply works through backlog.
- Date $MM Issuer (Priced *, Launch #)
- 01/06 $Benchmark Saudi Arabia 3Y +120a, 6Y +130a, 10Y +140a (Saudi Arabia last issued $5B sukuk on May 28: $1.25B 3Y +60, $1.5B 6Y +75, $2.25B 10Y +85)
- 01/06 $Benchmark Societe Generale 4.25NC3.25 +150a, 4.25NC3.25 SOFR, 8.25NC7.25 +190a
- 01/06 $Benchmark National Australia Bank (NAB) 5Y +75a, 5Y SOFR, 11NC10 +150a
- 01/06 $Benchmark Toyota Motor Cr 2Y +55a, 2Y SOFR, 5Y +80a, 10Y +100a
- 01/06 $Benchmark CRH SMW Finance 5Y +100a, 10Y +115a, 30Y +135a
- 01/06 $Benchmark Hyundai Cap Am 3Y +100a, 3Y SOFR, 5Y +120a
- 01/06 $Benchmark CIBC 3NC2 +85a, 3NC2 SOFR, 6NC5 +110a
- 01/06 $Benchmark Broadcom +3Y +75a, +5Y +85a, +7Y +95a
- 01/06 $Benchmark John Deere Capital 2Y +45a, 3Y +55a
- 01/06 $Benchmark Williams Cos 10Y +125a, 30Y +145a
- 01/06 $Benchmark India Export-Import Bank 10Y +130a
- 01/06 $Benchmark MUFG 6NC5 +100a, 11NC10 +115
- 01/06 $Benchmark Sixth Street Lending 5Y +210a
- 01/06 $Benchmark Southern Cal Edison 10Y, 30Y
- 01/06 $Benchmark Corebridge 3Y +80a, 3Y SOFR
- 01/06 $Benchmark BNP Paribas 8NC7 +155a
- 01/06 $Benchmark Lincoln Financial 5Y +115a
- 01/06 $Benchmark Caterpillar 3pt, dets TBA
- 01/06 $Benchmark UBS 3NC2 +85a
- 01/06 $500M DBJ WNG 10Y SOFR+78a
- 01/06 $Benchmark Kexim investor calls
- 01/06 $Benchmark World Bank 7Y +57a
- 01/06 $Benchmark United Mexican States filed prospectus to issue notes due 2030, 2037 and 2055. Last issued $1.8B in August 2022: Mexico 2033 +235.
- Expected Tuesday:
- 01/07 $Benchmark EIB 5Y SOFR+45a
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MNI UST Issuance Deep Dive: Dec 2024 (2/2)
Dec-06 21:53
Throughout November’s policy and market volatility, though, Treasury auctions largely impressed, with 5 of 7 nominal coupon sales trading through.
- Auction Results: November’s nominal coupon auctions were generally strong, with five out of seven auctions trading-through, of which four saw a positive reading on MNI’s Relative Strength Indicator (RSI). The remaining two auctions; 3 and 20-year auctions tailed. See page 2.
- Upcoming Supply: Issuance resumes next week with sales of $58B in 3Y Note, $39B in 10Y Note (reopen), and $22B in 30Y Bond (reopen). December is set to see $15B in nominal Treasury coupon sales, in addition to $22B in 5Y TIPS and $28B FRN for a total of $365B – slightly below the Oct and Nov totals of $369B which were joint-highest since Oct 2021.
- MNI's review includes a calendar of upcoming auctions and buyback operations.
US TSYS/SUPPLY: MNI UST Issuance Deep Dive: Dec 2024 (1/2)
Dec-06 21:51
MNI's latest US Treasury Issuance Deep Dive has just been published (PDF link here):
November proved a dramatic month for Treasuries. Yields were volatile before and after the Nov 5 election - after ending October at 4.28%, 10Y yields peaked at five-and-a-half-month high just above 4.50% mid-month before closing November just below 4.18%, as markets attempted to price in the implications of a Republican “sweep”.
- Also buffeting rates was speculation over the would-be successor to Treasury Secretary Yellen. President-elect Trump’s selection of hedge fund manager Scott Bessent was greeted with bull flattening in the curve, implying perhaps that he’s seen as more cautious on fiscal deficits than some of the alternatives (he has expressed support for halving the annual budget shortfall to 3% of GDP).
- The first quarterly Refunding process of Bessent’s Treasury is in early February, by which point we may start to have a better sense of the incoming administration’s approach to both fiscal policy and to more issuance-specific considerations such as duration management.
- Bessent for instance has argued that Yellen’s Treasury erred from a risk management perspective by boosting short-duration issuance, and there are suggestions he would be in favor of reversing course, telling Bloomberg in June “When rates are very low, you should extend duration…I think it’s very unfortunate what Secretary Yellen’s doing. She’s financing at the front end, and she’s making a bet on the carry trade, which is not good risk management.”
US LABOR MARKET: MNI US Employment Insight: Soft Enough To Keep Fed Cutting
Dec-06 21:05
Our latest Employment Insight has just been published and emailed to subscribers.
