US DATA: Continuing Claims Just About Hit Fresh Three Year High

Continuing claims provided the main bearish surprise in the data, just above exceeding recent highs, but the broad report doesn’t materially change the story of firms dampening down on re-hiring rather than turning to layoffs to manage headcount. 

• Initial jobless claims were a touch higher than expected at 223k (sa, cons 220k) in the week to Jan 18, covering the payrolls reference period, after an unrevised 217k.
• The four-week average only increased 1k to 214k, still low historically and below the 218k averaged in 2019 for context.
• Continuing claims were more notable, surprisingly increasing to 1899k (sa, cons 1866k) in the week to Jan 11 after a downward revised 1853k (initial 1859k).
• This just about pokes above highs of 1898/1897k in mid-Nov and mid-Dec for fresh highs since late 2021.
• The non-seasonally adjusted continuing claims data show a modest decline this week compared to some years although there can be quirks from week to week, especially at the turn of the year - see charts.