US DATA: Continuing Claims Continue Downtrend, Initial's Improvement Stalls
Apr-09 13:02
Initial jobless claims jumped by more than expected in the week ending April 4, to 219k from 203k prior (rev from 202k) versus the 210k consensus. This meant that the 4-week moving average ticked up for the first time since the start of February (210k from 208k), which bears some watching, though the level remains very much consistent with a "low firing" environment.
- Continuing claims for the prior week were, conversely, unexpectedly strong: they dropped to 1,794k from 1,832k prior (rev from 1,841k), well below the 1,828k consensus. For continuing claims, this marked the lowest 4-week moving average since June 2024 (1,823k), and overall levels are consistent with those seen in 2023-2024 having apparently reversed the approach to 2,000k in 2025.
- The NSA claims saw 202.9k initial, up 16.6k from the prior week, vs the seasonal factor expecting a 1.8k rise. For continuing, there was a 78.5k drop W/W to 1,928k, vs the seasonal factor anticipating a 36.6k drop.
- For initial claims in the April 4 week, there were outsized rises in New Jersey (+5.3k), Oregon (+2.7k) and Pennsylvania (+2.5k), as well as Illinois (+1.7k), Tennessee (+1.6k), and Washington (+1.0k). These are unusually large moves for this week across each state, though we wonder whether there was some difficulty in making the seasonal adjustment across the week that included Easter (in 2025 Good Friday was April 20, this year it was April 3).
- As such we don't see anything here to change the "low hiring, low hiring" narrative - and indeed the downward trend in continuing claims suggests solidity through the initial stages of the war in the Middle East.
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US DATA: Redbook Points To Slowdown In Discretionary Spending At Start Of March
Mar-10 13:00
The first Johnson Redbook index of March suggests a slight slowdown in retail sales in the month. Estimated sales of 6.2% Y/Y in the first week if extrapolated through the rest of March would mark a deceleration from 6.8% in February to the weakest outturn since October 2025, and would be well below retailers' target of a 7.4% gain.
- We remind that Redbook data have been much more positive than the "official" Census Bureau series over recent months, including a very divergent December. However the gap between Redbook and core retail indicators narrowed in January, with a strong Y/Y performance in the latter including 4.9% Y/Y for Control Group (base effect-driven: January 2026 was positive M/M vs a firmly negative M/M print in January 2025). There's still no release date for Census February retail sales.
- The anecdotals suggest that discretionary demand slowed in the first week of the month, though there was no mention of the conflict in the Middle East and impact on gas prices potentially subduing consumer confidence. Per the report: "With four weeks remaining, some retailers reported slower-than-expected sales in early March. Basic consumer goods outperformed seasonal items. Retailers aim to boost seasonal sales as warmer weather, St. Patrick’s Day, spring break, and an early Easter approach."
- Key to note: "Since Easter occurs two weeks earlier than last year, holiday sales are shifting into March. To address this timing difference, retailers suggest averaging March and April comparisons to determine a combined growth rate."
EU-BOND SYNDICATION: 10-year Dec-36 EU-bond: Allocations
Mar-10 12:56
- Spread set: 3.375% Dec-35 EU-Bond + 13bps (Guidance was + 15bps area)
- Size set earlier E9bln WNG (MNI expected E7-9bln)
- Books closed in excess of E118bln (inc JLM interest of E3bln)
- HR 106% vs 3.375% Dec-35 EU-Bond
- Maturity: 12 December 2036
- Coupon: Short first
- Settlement: 17 March 2026 (T+5)
- ISIN: EU000A4ERVC2
- Bookrunners: Barclays, DZ BANK, Morgan Stanley (B&D/DM), Societe Generale and UBS
- Timing: Hedge deadline 13:25GMT / 14:25CET
From market source with MNI colour
MNI: US REDBOOK: MAR STORE SALES +6.2% VS YR AGO MO
Mar-10 12:55
- MNI: US REDBOOK: MAR STORE SALES +6.2% VS YR AGO MO
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May-22 16:54
