BONDS: Continued tightening in the Tnotes/Bund spread
* As highlighted Yesterday, some divergence was noted between the US and the German Bund (EGBs). *...
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EQUITIES: EU Cash Opening Calls
Estox 50: -1.15%, Dax: -0.90%, CAC: -0.91%, FTSE -0.47%, SMI -1.09%.
STIR: 5bp Of BoE Cuts Priced
Hawkish adjustments in GBP STIRs with core global FI markets on the defensive after some hawkish comments from the ECB Governing Council and a recovery from Tuesday lows in crude oil.
- BoE-dated OIS 2.5-12.5bp less dovish through ’26, showing ~5bp of easing through July. A reminder that as much as ~22bp of tightening was priced through year-end during Monday’s hawkish repricing.
- SONIA futures flat to -11.5, SFIZ6 is still the best part of 30 ticks above Monday’s low. While both SFIZ6/Z7 & SFIZ6/Z8 trade away from this week’s lows.
- BoE’s Breeden will speak in front of the House of Lords Financial Services Regulation Committee this morning, but will cover Stablecoinns, so don’t expect much on monetary policy.
- That will leave geopolitical matters and related oil volatility at the fore.
BoE Meeting | SONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%) | Difference vs. Current Effective SONIA (bp) |
Mar-26 | 3.726 | -0.4 |
Apr-26 | 3.696 | -3.4 |
Jun-26 | 3.687 | -4.3 |
Jul-26 | 3.682 | -4.8 |
Sep-26 | 3.695 | -3.4 |
Nov-26 | 3.704 | -2.6 |
Dec-26 | 3.706 | -2.4 |
EURJPY TECHS: Key Support Remains Intact
- RES 4: 186.87 High Jan 23 and a key M/T resistance
- RES 3: 186.36 High Feb 9
- RES 2: 185.05 76.4% retracement of the Feb 9 - 12 bear leg
- RES 1: 184.77 High Feb 25 and a short-term bull trigger
- PRICE: 183.88 @ 07:34 GMT Mar 11
- SUP 1: 182.90/03 Bull channel from Feb 28 ‘25 low / Low Mar 03
- SUP 2: 180.81 Low Feb 12
- SUP 3: 180.10 Low Dec 5 ‘25
- SUP 4: 179.30 23.6% of the Feb 28 ‘25 - Jan 23 bull cycle
EURJPY is recovering from its most recent lows. Key support at 182.90, the base of a bull channel drawn from the Feb 28 ‘25 low, remains intact. A clear channel breakout is required to signal a stronger reversal and would open another key support at 181.81, the Feb 12 low. For bulls, initial resistance to monitor is unchanged at 184.77, the Feb 25 high. Clearance of this hurdle would highlight the resumption of a fresh bull wave inside the channel.
