SWEDEN: Consumption Eases In December But Quarterly Growth Still Positive

This morning’s Swedish activity data provides some context to the weaker-than-expected Q4 flash GDP reading (0.2% Q/Q vs 0.4% Riksbank, 0.5% consensus).  It doesn’t call into question the Riksbank’s expectations for growth to continue to strengthen through this year. Focus remains on the final Q4 GDP report on February 27, given the flash release is often sensitive to revisions.

• After growing solidly in October and November, household consumption pulled back 3.7% M/M in December. That left 3m/3m growth at 0.5% (vs 1.6% in Nov, 1.3% in Oct, 1.1% in Sep).
• Private sector production rose 1.6% M/M in December, leaving 3m/3m growth steady at 0.8%. Across sectors, industry looks to have made a negative contribution to total production in Q4 (-0.9% 3m/3), offset by growth in services (1.3% 3m/3m) and the rate-sensitive construction (2.6% 3m/3m).
• The positive on the industrial production side is that despite a 7.9% M/M fall in December, the volatile industrial orders series still registered 8.2% 3m/3m growth into year-end. Orders are generally considered a leading indicator of actual production outcomes.