US DATA: Consumer Sentiment Slides As Inflation Expectations Climb Further [1/2]
U.Mich consumer inflation expectations were surprisingly revised even higher in the final March report which helped further trim consumer sentiment. Long-run inflation expectations were marked 0.2pps higher than what was already a 32-year high and sentiment was lowered slightly to 57.0 (prelim 57.9) for a heavy drop from 64.7 in Feb and 71.7 in Jan - it’s the lowest since Nov 2022.
- 1Y inflation expectations: 5.0% (flash & cons 4.9%) in March final after 4.3% in Feb and 3.3% in Jan.
- 5-10Y inflation expectations: 4.1% (flash & cons 3.9) after 3.5% in Feb and 3.2% in Jan.
- Within consumer sentiment details, democrats saw another heavy decline to just 41.3 (-10pts), independents another solid 4.3pt decline to 63.7 (-4.3pts) whilst republicans inched to new recent highs of 87.4 (+0.7pts).
- For a more direct take on perceptions of government policy, the question that tackles the government’s attempts at fighting inflation or unemployment saw its balance slide to 56 in March from 70 in Feb. It’s an abrupt deterioration for this index, having averaged joint recent highs of 86 a month either side of the presidential election in November. It’s now at its joint lowest since Oct 2013 and before that 2012.
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US TSYS: Post-New Home Sales
- Brief two-way flow as Treasuries maintain mildly weaker levels after lower than expected New Home sales for January, but large up-revisions to prior.
- The Mar'25 10Y contract trades 110-14.5 (-2), well inside technicals: resistance at 110-21 (High Feb 25), support below at 110-00 (High Feb 7 and a recent breakout point).
- Curves flatter: 2s10s -1.972 at 17.692; 5s30s -1.583 at 40.802.
- Cross asset: stocks moderately bid (SPX eminis +35.50 at 6005.25); Gold weaker (-11.71 at 2903.27), Crude steady (WTI at 68.93), Bbg US$ index firmer, near highs at 1288.39 (+3.71).
MNI: US JAN NEW HOME SALES -10.5% TO 0.657M SAAR
- MNI: US JAN NEW HOME SALES -10.5% TO 0.657M SAAR
- US DEC NEW HOME SALES REVISED TO 0.734M SAAR
AUDUSD TECHS: Corrective Pullback Extends
- RES 4: 0.6471 High Dec 9 ‘24
- RES 3: 0.6429 High Dec 12 ‘24
- RES 2: 0.6414 38.2% retracement of the Sep 30 ‘24 - Feb 3 bear leg
- RES 1: 0.6409 High Feb 21
- PRICE: 0.6309 @ 14:52 GMT Feb 26
- SUP 1: 0.6300/6231 Intraday low / Low Feb 10
- SUP 3: 0.6171/6088 Low Feb 4 / 3
- SUP 3: 0.6045 1.500 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing
- SUP 4: 0.6000 Round number support
AUDUSD is trading lower today. The latest pullback appears corrective, however, the pair has traded through support at the 50-day EMA, at 0.6316. A clear breach of this average would signal scope for a deeper retracement and expose 0.6231, the Feb 10 low. For bulls, a resumption of gains would refocus attention on key resistance at 0.6402/14 - the 100-dma and 38.2% of the Sep 30 ‘24 - Feb 3 bear leg respectively.
