TARIFFS: Conservative SCOTUS Justices Sceptical Of Trump's Tariff Defence
Conservative Supreme Court justices Amy Coney Barrett, Neil Gorsuch, and Chief Justice John Roberts all appeared sceptical of President Donald Trump’s reciprocal tariffs, during questions to Trump’s lawyer during today’s hearing.
- Igor Bobic at HuffPost reports Gorsuch noted whatever powers Congress delegates to the president, no president will want to give back: “Congress can’t take that back without a supermajority. What president is going to give that power back?”
- Gorsuch added: “Congress as a practical matter can’t get this power back once it’s handed it over. The president is a one way rachet to the gradual but continual excretion of power in the executive branch and away from the people’s elected representatives.”
- MNI’s Political Risk team noted in the US Daily Brief this morning, “Ultimately, the Supreme Court’s decision is likely to come down to whether justices determine the tariffs are a national security issue, as framed by the administration, or an economic issue, which would fall under the purview of Congress.”
- Bobic notes that both Roberts and Barrett seemed sceptical of Trump’s national security justification for tariffs, “I mean, Spain? France? I could see it with some countries but…” Barrett said.
- The implied probability of Trump winning the case has dropped to 20%, per Polymarket. “A loss wouldn’t completely unwind the Trump agenda. IEEPA tariffs account for roughly half of the tariff revenue that the government has so far collected in the 2025 fiscal year,” NYT reported yesterday.
Figure 1: Supreme Court Rules in Favour of Trump’s Tariffs
Source: Polymarket
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FRANCE: Ex-PM Lecornu: Will Hold Final Talks On Stability And Inform Macron Weds
Outgoing PM Lecornu writes on X.com that "I have accepted, at the request of the President of the Republic, to hold final discussions with the political forces for the stability of the country. I will tell the head of state on Wednesday evening whether this is possible or not, so that he can draw all the necessary conclusions." (As translated by X.com's Grok).
- USDEUR and OAT futures little changed on the news, with the same main options still appearing to be available to President Macron: early elections, a new PM to attempt to form a stable government, or fresh elections.
- However this puts a slightly more concrete timeline (late Wednesday) on when we might hear about what options Macron will pursue.
FRANCE: Lecornu Accept Macron's Request For Last-Ditch Stability Talks
Outgoing French Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu has accepted President Emmanuel Macron's request for “last-ditch talks” with parliamentary leaders aimed at restoring stability.
- Lecornu wrote on X, “I have accepted, at the request of the President of the Republic, to hold final discussions with the political forces for the stability of the country. I will tell the head of state on Wednesday evening whether this is possible or not, so that he can draw all the necessary conclusions.”
- Macron, who has yet to make a public statement on Lecornu’s resignation, “now has three main choices: He can name a new prime minister, who would then need to propose a fresh cabinet; he could call a parliamentary election; or he could resign himself — something he’s previously said he won’t do,” per Bloomberg.
- The Financial Times notes, “Macron could try to name another premier, his fourth since last summer, this time from the centre left. But the fracture that has now opened up with the mainstream conservatives makes this even less viable than before.”
- Social leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon wrote on X earlier, “Emmanuel Macron must resign or leave following a vote of the assemblies. The people are their own master. In one way or another, it will be summoned again. I invite everyone to check if they are properly registered on the electoral rolls. Register if it is not already done!”
OPTIONS: Larger FX Option Pipeline
- EUR/USD: Oct08 $1.1700(E1.1bln), $1.1770-80(E1.2bln), $1.1800(E1.4bln), $1.1850-60(E1.0bln); Oct10 $1.1600(E1.3bln), $1.1650(E1.7bln), $1.1700(E1.6bln), $1.1740-50(E2.5bln), $1.1780-00(E2.8bln)
- USD/JPY: Oct08 Y146.50($1.2bln), Y147.00($1.5bln); Oct09 Y150.00-15($1.9bln)
