CANADA: Conservative MP Steps Down Allowing Poilievre To Seek Seat In Commons
May-02 16:37
- Damien Kurek, a Conservative MP from Alberta, says in statement Friday he will resign so Pierre Poilievre can seek a seat in the House of Commons.
- Poilievre lost his Ottawa-area seat in Monday's election, and this move signals Poilievre intends to fight any leadership challenge.
- Even on election night there was infighting among provincial and federal Conservatives unhappy with their fourth straight election defeat.
- Conservatives had solid double-digit polling leads weeks before the election was called, which slipped away as Justin Trudeau was replaced by Mark Carney and the ballot issue became fighting Trump's tariffs rather than Poilievre's focus on the cost of living squeeze.
- Carney said earlier today he would allow a by-election to take place quickly if the Conservatives sought one.
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OPTIONS: Larger FX Option Pipeline
Apr-02 16:35
- EUR/USD: Apr04 $1.0700(E2.0bln), $1.0750-60(E2.1bln), $1.0800(E2.4bln); Apr08 $1.1270(E1.7bln)
- AUD/USD: Apr04 $0.6200(A$1.5bln), $0.6350(A$1.1bln); Apr08 $0.6340-50(A$2.1bln)
- USD/CAD: Apr04 C$1.4350($1.2bln), C$1.4400($1.4bln)
US STOCKS: Midday Equities Roundup: Off Lows After Musk Headlines
Apr-02 16:26
- Stocks ignored today's event risk associated with Pres Trump's reciprocal tariff announcement after the close, rebounding to modestly higher after Politico report that Elon Musk will step back from "governing partner" role in the next few weeks. Several new outlets have announced over the last couple days that Musk would be stepping down from DOGE by the end of May.
- Currently, the DJIA trades up 137.35 points (0.33%) at 42128.63, S&P E-Minis up 27.25 points (0.48%) at 5702.25, Nasdaq up 138.1 points (0.8%) at 17587.66.
- Consumer Discretionary and Information Technology sectors outperformed at midday, Caesars Entertainment +4.39%, DoorDash +3.86%, Williams-Sonoma +3.76%, Tesla +3.61% and CarMax +3.25% buoyed the Consumer Discretionary sector.
- Chip stocks supported the Tech sector with Oracle Corp +2.68%, Hewlett Packard Enterprise +2.30%, Palantir Technologies +2.26% and Dell Technologies +2.22%.
- Consumer Staples and Energy sectors continued to underperform with Altria Group -3.49%, Philip Morris International -1.85%, Mondelez International -1.82% and Hershey -1.62% weighing on Consumer Staples.
- Oil and Gas stocks leading laggers included Chevron Corp -0.95%, Hess -0.90%, Baker Hughes -0.83% and Phillips 66 -0.76%.
BUNDS: Recent Recovery Shows First Sign Of Running Out Of Steam [2/2]
Apr-02 16:26
- Futures positioning appeared to be tilting towards the recent recovery coming to a halt soon, with OI data pointing towards ongoing shorts liquidation.
- Further, the IV skew on June expiry Bund options moved back into positive territory today as 25d call vol exceeded that of put vol, reaching its highest level since underlying RXM5 became active.
- From a technical perspective, the latest recovery to today's high of 129.62 is considered corrective, however, the breach of the 20-day EMA and a print above resistance at 129.41 (Jan 14 low) strengthens a bullish theme and opens the 130.00 handle and 130.26 (Fibo retracement). Key short-term support to watch lies at 127.74 (Mar 25 low). Clearance of this level would highlight a reversal.
- With 10Y Bund yields currently at 2.71%, analysts appear to be divided in view on the direction of travel from here. UBS earlier today extended the target on their "long 10-Year Bund position to 2.60% (from 2.70%) and the stop to 2.80% (from 3.05%)", while Goldman Sachs, also earlier today, revised their end-2025 Bund forecast to 2.80% (from 3.00%). GS said they "expect weaker growth outcomes to outweigh inflation concerns for the ECB, taking front-end yields lower and curves steeper. But eventual fiscal loosening should keep Bund yields near current levels".
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