POLAND: Consensus Forms Around 25bp March Cut and 3.50% Terminal Rate

We have heard from several MPC members this week, with their comments cementing consensus around the outcome of the NBP's monetary policy meeting in March (25bp cut) and the terminal rate (3.50%). The NBP meet next on March 4 - a meeting which will include updated inflation and GDP projections.

• MPC's Henryk Wnorowski told Dziennik Gazeta Prawna that 'there are currently no strong arguments against a rate cut in March, therefore, the probability is higher than it was three weeks ago,' even if there is no absolute certainty. He expressed preference for loosening policy in 25bp increments.
• Meanwhile, Przemysław Litwiniuk told Bloomberg that the MPC could delay the next rate reduction until April and then deliver a double-barrel 50bp cut, which would give policymakers more time to assess inflation trends and annual adjustments to the CPI basket. Alternatively, the MPC could deliver two 25bp cuts starting in March and in either case the terminal rate would be 3.50%, with potential for further easing 'after the summer holidays' if the economic outlook deteriorates.
• In an interview with Reuters, Marcin Zarzecki said March may be an appropriate moment for an interest rate cut in Poland, and the forecast of the main interest rate at 3.50% this year is "sensible", but said decisions will depend on incoming data and forecasts. "March may be the right time for an interest rate cut. The considered range is 25 basis points. However, I would like to emphasise that this decision will be directly dependent on incoming data and, in particular, on the results of the March inflation projection," Zarzecki said.
• MPC's Gabriela Masłowska told PAP newswire that if headline inflation drops in 1Q26 and the new projection suggests that it will stay within target in coming quarters, there is a 'real chance of a rate cut in March'. In such a case, the Council would likely trim the reference rate by 25bp, following up with another 25bp cut in 2H26 or possibly earlier. In line with recent comments from her colleagues, Masłowska saw the terminal rate at 3.50%.
• PAP then circulated comments from Ludwik Kotecki who signalled that March 'will be a very good moment to make a 25bp cut' and suggested that the target rate is around 3.75-3.50%, adding that the MPC 'should pause for longer' after reaching this level.