ASIA: Coming up in the Asian session on Thursday
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USDCAD TECHS: Bear Threat Remains Present
- RES 4: 1.3729 76.4% retracement of the Nov 1 - Dec 27 bear leg
- RES 3: 1.3661 High Nov 27
- RES 2: 1.3623 61.8% retracement of the Nov 1 - Dec 27 bear leg
- RES 1: 1.3513/3606 20-day EMA / High Feb 28 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 1.3484 @ 16:33 GMT Mar 11
- SUP 1: 1.3420 Low Mar 8
- SUP 2: 1.3359 Low Jan 31 and key S/T support
- SUP 3: 1.3343 Low Jan 12
- SUP 4: 1.3288 Low Jan 5
USDCAD traded lower last week as the pair extended the short-term reversal from 1.3606, the Feb 28 high. Key support lies at 1.3359, the Jan 31 low and a break of this level would be seen as a bearish development. Initial firm support to watch lies at 1.3441, the Feb 22 low. It has been pierced and a clear break would open 1.3359. On the upside, the bull trigger is at 1.3606, the Feb 28 high, where a break is required to reinstate a bullish theme.
US OUTLOOK/OPINION: GS: Pullback From Temporary Boost To Labor-Reliant Services Inflation
- Goldman analysts see core CPI printing 0.32% M/M (cons 0.3) / 3.7% Y/Y in February, with headline at 0.44% (cons 0.4).
- "Start-of-year price increases temporarily boosted prices in labor-reliant services categories in January, and with this January effect now behind us, we forecast a return to the previous inflation trend, specifically for medical care, personal care, car repair, and day care services."
- The acceleration in headline is seen driven by higher energy (+2.4%) and food (+0.15%) prices.
- OER is expected to "step down...following outsized volatility in January", to 0.47% M/M, 0.09pp softer than in January - with Rents ticking up 0.06pp to 0.42%.
- They also "assume small declines in new (-0.3%) and used (-0.4%) car prices, reflecting higher incentives and lower auction prices.
- On services, "on the positive side, we assume a 1.5% rise in airfares and another strong gain in car insurance (+1.6%), based on online price data.
- We estimate a 0.44% rise in headline CPI, reflecting higher energy (+2.4%) and food (+0.15%) prices.
AUDUSD TECHS: Firmer Short-Term Tone
- RES 4: 0.6748 High Jan 5
- RES 3: 0.6729 High Jan 12
- RES 2: 0.6708 61.8% retracement of the Dec 28 - Feb 13 bear cycle
- RES 1: 0.6668 High Mar 8
- PRICE: 0.6611 @ 16:30 GMT Mar 11
- SUP 1: 0.6566 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: 0.6478/6443 Low Mar 5 / Low Feb 13 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: 0.6412 76.4% Fibonacci retracement for Oct - Dec upleg
- SUP 4: 0.6360 Low Nov 14
AUDUSD traded sharply higher Friday and the pair is trading closer to its recent highs. The recovery across last week threatens a recent bearish theme and price has cleared resistance at 0.6595, the Feb 22 high, strengthening a bullish theme and this signals scope for a continuation higher. Potential is seen for a climb towards 0.6708, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial key support is at 0.6478, the Mar 5 low.
