ASIA: Coming Up In The Asia-Pac Session On Thursday
Feb-26 21:35
| 2200GMT | 0600HKT | 0900AEDT | Australia RBA's Hauser,Jones, McPhee-Testimony |
| 0000GMT | 0800HKT | 1100AEDT | New Zealand Feb ANZ Business Confidence |
| 0000GMT | 0800HKT | 1100AEDT | New Zealand Feb ANZ Activity Outlook |
| 0000GMT | 0800HKT | 1100AEDT | Australia to Sell A$150 Million 2% 2035 Inflation-Linked Bonds |
| 0030GMT | 0830HKT | 1130AEDT | Australia 4Q Private Capital Expenditure |
| 0135GMT | 0935HKT | 1235AEDT | New Zealand To Sell 29, 33, 35 & 41 Bonds |
| 0300GMT | 1100HKT | 1400AEDT | South Korea 4Q Short-Term External Debt |
| 0500GMT | 1300HKT | 1600AEDT | Japan to Sell 2-Year Bonds |
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ASIA: Coming Up In The Asian Session On Tuesday
Jan-27 21:19
| 0100GMT | 0900HKT | 1200AEDT | Philippines 4Q Agriculture Output |
| 0830GMT | 1630HKT | 1930AEDT | Hong Kong Dec Money Supply |
ECB VIEW: Rabobank Still Expect Fewer Cuts Than The Median This Cycle
Jan-27 20:52
- Ahead of Thursday's ECB decision, Rabobank write that President Trump has not materially changed the outlook for the Eurozone economy for now, and so, "there is no reason to expect the ECB to change course at this juncture.”
- "The Governing Council increasingly expects inflation to converge to the 2% target in the course of 2025. This allows for another 25bp cut at the January policy meeting. However, uncertainty remains high.”
- “So, even though the ECB may be inclined to cut further in the coming months, we believe the ECB also wants to keep its flexibility. Lagarde will probably refrain from giving any guidance.”
- Rabobank see three 25bp cuts, to 2.25% in April, "based on our premise that underlying inflation will be a bit stickier than the ECB expects.”
- Specifically: “We still see the remaining gap between underlying inflation and the ECB’s target close more slowly than the Governing Council seems to anticipate." That could see the ECB "opt to delay the cut we have pencilled in for April until June.”
- “However, more so than the risk of delays, we see the risk that the ECB’s intended cycle to (about) 2% could be cut short. Much hinges on the policies of the new US administration, and just because Trump has not acted on his threats yet, that does not mean that he will not impose tariffs on Europe or other countries.”
US TSYS: China AI Startup DeepSeek Rattles Broader Markets
Jan-27 20:34
- Heavy risk-off moves occurred Monday as Chinese AI startup DeepSeek rattled broader markets: new competition for US AI developers weighed heavily on chip stocks, the tech heavy Nasdaq falling over 3.65% in late trade, spurred heavy outright buying and short covering across the board in Treasuries.
- After the close, the Mar'25 10Y contract trades +22 at 109-05 vs. 109-12 high, just under initial technical resistance at 109-12.5 (50-day EMA), heavy volumes (TYH5 over 2.5M).
- Despite the rally, curves were mixed by the close, 2s10s -2.053 at 32.906, 5s30s +1.680 at 43.432. Nevertheless, projected rate cuts through mid-2025 regain traction vs. late Friday (*) levels as follows: Jan'25 at -0.7bp (-0.1bp), Mar'25 at -8.3bp (-6.9bp), May'25 at -15.9bp (-13.6bp), Jun'25 at -27.9bp (-24.7bp), Jul'25 at -33.7bp (-28.6bp).
- Focus remains on Wednesday's FOMC policy annc, no move expected, as well as a heavy slate of corporate earnings Tuesday: PACCAR, Sysco Corp, Synchrony Financial, Lockheed Martin Corp, Veradigm, Royal Caribbean, Polaris Inc., Boeing, NextEra Energy, JetBlue Airways, General Motors, Kimberly-Clark Corp, Invesco, Starbucks, Qorvo and Stryker Corp.
