ASIA: Coming Up In Asia Pac Markets On Monday

• RES 4: 1.4200 Round number resistance 
• RES 3: 1.4167 50.0% retracement of the Feb 3 - Jun 16 bear leg
• RES 2: 1.4140/62 High Nov 5 / Channel top drawn from Jul 23 low
• RES 1: 1.4057 High Nov 10  
• PRICE: 1.4020 @ 16:26 GMT Nov 14
• SUP 1: 1.3985 Low Nov 13
• SUP 2: 1.3962 50-day EMA 
• SUP 3: 1.3888 Low Oct 29 and a key support  
• SUP 4: 1.3886 Bull channel base drawn from the Jul 23 low

A bear theme in USDCAD remains intact for now following recent weakness. Price action is trading inside a bull channel drawn from the Jul 23 low. The top of the channel - currently at 1.4162 - provided a firm resistance on Nov 11, highlighting scope for a bear extension towards the base of the channel at 1.3886. Initial key support to watch lies at 1.3962, the 50-day EMA. For bulls, a break of the channel top is required to confirm a resumption of the uptrend.

Treasuries softened to end the week, with early gains dissipating and the cash curve ending bear steeper.

• An overnight selloff in Gilts related to UK fiscal concerns spilled over lightly into the US in early trade, but maintained a cautious tone for Treasuries following on from Fed commentary earlier in the week dampening enthusiasm for a December rate cut as well as weak long-end Treasury auctions.
• However a pullback in equities was enough to provide a safe-haven bid in equities which saw TY futures briefly touch the best levels of November so far. That would reverse however, with equities finding their footing and turning higher for the day and returning Treasuries to early morning levels.
• With the federal government shutdown now over, some postponed data is starting to come into view, with the BLS scheduling September's delayed nonfarm payrolls report for next Thursday, and the Census Bureau set to publish some delayed August data next week.
• Still, there's no official word on the fate of the October CPI release, which looks very likely to be cancelled altogether, or the date of the October employment report's publication (which is likely to see an establishment survey but not a household one).
• Against this backdrop, Friday's Fed commentary (with the usual exception of Gov Miran calling for further easing in December) was roundly hawkish, with Dallas's Logan and KC's Schmid reiterating their opposition to a December rate cut, largely out of concern over entrenched inflation. A December cut remained around 50/50 priced.
• Latest levels: The 2-Yr yield is up 2.1bps at 3.6121%, 5-Yr is up 2.6bps at 3.7327%, 10-Yr is up 2.7bps at 4.1463%, and 30-Yr is up 3.4bps at 4.7458%. Dec 10-Yr futures (TY) down 7.5/32  at 112-17 (L: 112-16 / H: 113-04.5)
• Along with the newly-rescheduled data mentioned above, next week's calendar includes the October FOMC minutes (we're watching for color on the debate over whether to ease any further) and flash November PMI data.

Friday's U.S. rates/bond options flow included:

• TY Week4 (expiry 28th Nov) 112.75/113.50cs vs 112.25p, bought the cs for flat in 30k
• TYZ5 113.00 calls ~5.6K given at 0-13.
• SFRZ5 96.37/96.43cs, traded 0.5 in 11k.
• SFRZ5 96.31/96.43cs, traded 1.75 in 4k.
• SFRZ5 96.31/96.37cs 1x2, traded flat in 7.5k.
• SFRZ5 96.31/96.37cs, traded 1.5 in 2k.
• SFRZ5 96.25^, traded 15.25 in 2k.
• SFRZ5 96.25/96.31/96.43c fly, traded 0.75 in 5k.
• SFRF6/H6 96.31/96.50^^ spread, bought for 6.25 in 2k. This was also bought into the close Yesterday for 6 in 5k.
• SFRH6 96.18/96.06ps 1x2, bought for 2.25 in 5k. This was also bought into the close Yesterday for 2 in 20k
• SFRU6 99.00/100.00/101.00c fly, traded 1.25 in 2k.
• SFRU6 96.87/97.12cs vs 0QU6 97.12/97.37cs, bought the front for 0.75 in 2.5k.
• 0QZ5 97.00/97.06/97.18c fly 2x3x1, traded 1.5 in 5k.
• 0QZ5 97.00/97.06/97.18/97.25c condor, traded for 1 in 4k.
• 0QF6 96.93/97.06cs, traded 4.5 in 10k.