ASIA: Coming Up In Asia Pac Markets On Friday

• RES 4: 1.3845 High Jan 22    
• RES 3: 1.3800 High Jan 23 
• RES 2: 1.3753 High Mar 03 and key resistance 
• RES 1: 1.3742 High Mar 13
• PRICE: 1.3707 @ 16:38 GMT Mar 17
• SUP 1: 1.3651/3526 20-day EMA / Low Mar 09
• SUP 2: 1.3482 Low Jan 30 and the bear trigger 
• SUP 3: 1.3420 Low Sep 25 ‘24
• SUP 4: 1.3400 50.0% retracement of the 2021 - 2025 uptrend

For now and despite recent gains, USDCAD continues to trade inside a  range. Resistance at the 50-day EMA, at 1.3691, has been breached. Attention is on key near-term resistance at 1.3753, where a break would highlight a stronger bull cycle and confirm a clear breach of the 20- and 50-day EMAs. This would open 1.3800 initially, the Jan 23 high. For bears, a reversal would refocus attention on 1.3482, the Jan 30 low and bear trigger.  

The AUD/USD had a range overnight of 0.7061-0.7118, Asia is currently trading around 0.7105, +0.45%. The AUD initially dipped after the market reacted to the split vote but a hawkish Bullock and a risk backdrop that is trying to stabilise has helped support it and challenge the 0.7100 area. The AUD remains a favoured long should risk stabilise. Ultimately the price remains within this 0.6900-0.7200 range as the conflict continues. While the pivotal 0.6900-0.6950 area continues to hold, the bulls have a slight edge, the market is already long and will be hoping to challenge the top of the range. On the day, a sustained move back above 0.7100 is needed for the market to again start looking toward the pivotal 0.7200 area, but for the moment this messy 0.6900-0.7200 range continues to hold. The first support on the day is back toward the 0.7050-0.7080 area.

• MNI RBA Watch - Timing Drove Split Vote, Not Direction- Bullock. Bullock noted rates will need to go higher should inflation prove persistent. 
• “RBA Governor Michele Bullock appeared hawkish on inflation during her press conference, saying prices remained too high and the board was worried about second-round effects from higher energy costs.” - BBG
• Options : Closest significant option expiries for NY cut, based on DTCC data: 0.6950(AUD1.15b), 0.7050(AUD826m), 0.7100(AUD932m). Upcoming Close Strikes : 0.6825(AUD2.04b Mar 19), 0.6900(AUD1.32b Mar 20), 0.6950(AUD1.98b Mar 19) - BBG
• The AUD/USD Average True Range for the last 10 Trading days: 92 Points
• Data/Event: Westpac Leading Index 

 Fig 1: AUD/USD spot Daily Chart

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P

• RES 4: 0.7284 High Jun’22
• RES 3: 0.7256 2.500 proj of the Nov 21 - Dec 10 - 18 price swing   
• RES 2: 0.7208 61.8% of the Feb 25 ‘21 - Apr 9 ‘25 bear leg
• RES 1: 0.7187 High Mar 11 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 0.7103 @ 16:37 GMT Mar 17
• SUP 1: 0.6968 50-day EMA and key support
• SUP 2: 0.6944 Low Mar 3  
• SUP 3: 0.6897 Low Feb 6
• SUP 4: 0.6834 Low Jan 23

Key support in AUDUSD remains intact for now. The level to monitor is 0.6968, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this average would undermine the current bullish theme. The trend condition remains bullish - the moving average set-up is in a bull mode position and this continues to signal a dominant uptrend. A resumption of gains would open 0.7208 next, a Fibonacci retracement point.