STIR: Closer To 5bp Of Easing Priced For Tomorrow's BoE After U.S.-Driven Move
Nov-05 15:46
Movements in the USD front end (driven by ADP data, the Treasury’s QRA and ISM services survey) have spilled over into GBP markets.
- SONIA futures now 0.75-6.5 lower, leaving SFIZ6 10.0 off October’s high.
- BoE-dated OIS now 1.5-5.0bp less dovish on the day, showing 5.5bp of easing for tomorrow, 15bp through year-end and 28bp through February.
- For tomorrow’s decision we have characterised our view as 50/50 (when it comes to a cut or a hold), which is comfortably more dovish than current market pricing.
- We would have more confidence in a cut if the Budget was not coming into view, particularly given the soft food CPI reading in the latest monthly inflation release.
- Our full preview of the decision is here.
| BoE Meeting | SONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%) | Difference vs. Current Effective SONIA (bp) |
| Nov-25 | 3.916 | -5.4 |
| Dec-25 | 3.820 | -14.9 |
| Feb-26 | 3.691 | -27.8 |
| Mar-26 | 3.639 | -33.0 |
| Apr-26 | 3.536 | -43.4 |
| Jun-26 | 3.508 | -46.2 |
| Jul-26 | 3.448 | -52.1 |
| Sep-26 | 3.433 | -53.7 |
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FED: US TSY 26W BILL AUCTION: HIGH 3.695%(ALLOT 3.05%)
Oct-06 15:32
- US TSY 26W BILL AUCTION: HIGH 3.695%(ALLOT 3.05%)
- US TSY 26W BILL AUCTION: DEALERS TAKE 28.17% OF COMPETITIVES
- US TSY 26W BILL AUCTION: DIRECTS TAKE 9.23% OF COMPETITIVES
- US TSY 26W BILL AUCTION: INDIRECTS TAKE 62.59% OF COMPETITIVES
- US TSY 26W BILL AUCTION: BID/CVR 3.04
FED: US TSY 13W BILL AUCTION: HIGH 3.850%(ALLOT 20.89%)
Oct-06 15:32
- US TSY 13W BILL AUCTION: HIGH 3.850%(ALLOT 20.89%)
- US TSY 13W BILL AUCTION: DEALERS TAKE 36.63% OF COMPETITIVES
- US TSY 13W BILL AUCTION: DIRECTS TAKE 6.07% OF COMPETITIVES
- US TSY 13W BILL AUCTION: INDIRECTS TAKE 57.30% OF COMPETITIVES
- US TSY 13W BILL AUCTION: BID/CVR 2.91
OPTIONS: Expiries for Oct07 NY cut 1000ET (Source DTCC)
Oct-06 15:18
- EUR/USD: $1.1650-65(E2.2bln), $1.1695-10(E869mln), $1.1750(E1.3bln), $1.1820(E2.3bln)
- USD/JPY: Y149.25($667mln), Y149.75($811mln), Y150.00($747mln), Y150.60($525mln), Y151.00($776mln)
- AUD/USD: $0.6675-90(A$630mln)
