FED: Cleveland's Hammack Tells WSJ Fed Can Be "Very Patient" On Cuts

Jan-17 14:18

Updates wording after WSJ corrects quote to "modestly" restrictive rather than "moderately".

Cleveland Fed Pres Hammack (not a 2025 voter) continues to sound hawkish in a WSJ interview, following her surprise dissent in December to the 25bp rate cut. She emphasizes patience in considering future cuts, describing current policy as only modestly restrictive, but also noting that the rise in longer-end yields represents a tightening of financial conditions that will help dampen inflation. Overall she doesn't sound opposed to further cuts per se, but would require significant convincing from the data. A couple of key quotes:

  • On her December dissent: "For me, that December conversation was really about, did you need to do it now, or could you be more patient and wait and see."
  • On further rate cuts: "We can be very patient...we still have an inflation problem. We still have a rate-of-change problem that we need to address... we've made amazing progress on it, but we need to continue to finish the job."

Historical bullets

Brightmine: Median Pay Awards Remain at 4%

Dec-18 14:16
  • Brightmine median basic pay awards in the 3 months to November remained at 4.0% for the fifth consecutive month. The press release notes this is the "start of the downward trend that the Brightmine 2025 Pay Forecast report predicts will continue into next year."
  • There has been an increase in the dispersion of pay awards with the interquartile range having picked up in recent months.
  • The release states "Despite more challenging conditions this year, organisations have still opted for pay increases rather than freezing pay, and they expect to continue doing so in 2025 despite a more complex landscape."
  • The rolling quarter of data is based on 22 pay awards between September 1 and 30 November 2024 covering approximately 227,000 employees (down from 64 in the July to September period covering 433,000 employees).

US: SFR ps spread

Dec-18 14:15

SFRF5/G5 95.75/95.62ps spread sold at 1.5 in 4k.

US TSY OPTIONS: TY Weekly outright call buyer

Dec-18 14:11

US TY Weekly Option, expiry Friday.

  • TY 110.50c, bought for '02 in ~11k.