Updates wording after WSJ corrects quote to "modestly" restrictive rather than "moderately".
Cleveland Fed Pres Hammack (not a 2025 voter) continues to sound hawkish in a WSJ interview, following her surprise dissent in December to the 25bp rate cut. She emphasizes patience in considering future cuts, describing current policy as only modestly restrictive, but also noting that the rise in longer-end yields represents a tightening of financial conditions that will help dampen inflation. Overall she doesn't sound opposed to further cuts per se, but would require significant convincing from the data. A couple of key quotes:
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SFIU5 96.00/96.10 call spread vs. 95.50/95.40 put spread, paper paid 0.5 on 7K, buying the call spread vs 95.79 (10% delta).
Futures through next Fibonacci support at 92.78, with the next projection from the same sequence located less than 15 ticks below prevailing levels at 92.63. We will provide an update covering some longer-term technical levels shortly.
Bund futures have moved away from session highs but have traded in a tight 30 tick range this morning. Futures are currently -30 ticks at 134.54, with initial support at 134.39 (Dec 13 low).