FED: Cleveland's Hammack Tells WSJ Fed Can Be "Very Patient" On Cuts

Jan-17 10:56

Updates wording after WSJ corrects quote to "modestly" restrictive rather than "moderately".

Cleveland Fed Pres Hammack (not a 2025 voter) continues to sound hawkish in a WSJ interview, following her surprise dissent in December to the 25bp rate cut. She emphasizes patience in considering future cuts, describing current policy as only modestly restrictive, but also noting that the rise in longer-end yields represents a tightening of financial conditions that will help dampen inflation. Overall she doesn't sound opposed to further cuts per se, but would require significant convincing from the data. A couple of key quotes:

  • On her December dissent: "For me, that December conversation was really about, did you need to do it now, or could you be more patient and wait and see."
  • On further rate cuts: "We can be very patient...we still have an inflation problem. We still have a rate-of-change problem that we need to address... we've made amazing progress on it, but we need to continue to finish the job."

Historical bullets

SONIA: OPTIONS: SFIU5 Upside Structure Trades

Dec-18 10:54

SFIU5 96.00/96.10 call spread vs. 95.50/95.40 put spread, paper paid 0.5 on 7K, buying the call spread vs 95.79 (10% delta).

GILTS: 10-YEar Yields Test Next Resistance

Dec-18 10:44

Futures through next Fibonacci support at 92.78, with the next projection from the same sequence located less than 15 ticks below prevailing levels at 92.63. We will provide an update covering some longer-term technical levels shortly.

  • 10-Year yields testing their November 14 high at 4.566%.

EGBS: Bund Futures Off Highs; German Curve Twist Steepens

Dec-18 10:43

Bund futures have moved away from session highs but have traded in a tight 30 tick range this morning. Futures are currently -30 ticks at 134.54, with initial support at 134.39 (Dec 13 low). 

  • The current bearish cycle in Bund futures remains in play and the contract continues to trade closer to its recent lows. Sights are on 133.98, a Fibonacci retracement point. Clearance of this level would strengthen the current downleg.
  • ECB’s Chief Economist Lane’s webcast with MNI has concluded. His remarks were generally not market moving.
  • Eurozone November Final HICP was revised down a tenth from the rounded flash reading on an annual basis to 2.2%Y/Y from 2.3%Y/Y - unrounded this was a smaller -0.04 revision to 2.24% Y/Y (vs 2.28% flash, 2.00% prior).
  • The German cash curve has twist steepened, with 2-year yields 1bp lower and 30-year yields 3bps higher. German swap spreads have narrowed month-to-date, with the long end leading the move.
  • The 10-year OAT/Bund spread remains above 80bps. There is still no schedule for PM Francois Bayrou to name the parties that will form his new administration or the individuals that will sit in his Council of Ministers.
  • 10-year peripheral spreads to Bunds are also biased a little wider today.
  • Broader macro focus remains on the FOMC decision later this evening.