CHINA: China's Trade Surplus With EU Rises Above US Surplus Position
May-09 03:47
China's aggregate trade surplus dipped from $102.64bn in March to $96.18bn in April. This was still above consensus expectations. This headline trade surplus is around levels that prevailed for much of H2 2024. It does mask some underlying shifts though as tariffs start to impact trends.
- China's trade surplus with the US fell to $20.46bn, from $27.58bn in March. Outside of China LNY periods this is a soft result, see the chart below
- Offsets in terms of the aggregate trade position came in terms of a rise in the surplus position with ASEAN nations to $27.19bn, from $23.89bn prior. The surplus with the EU also rose to $26.67bn from $21.50bn. EU's surplus is now larger than that with the US.
- Most countries within the EU saw a higher surplus from China's standpoint, particularly the Netherlands.
- In terms of trade deficits, China's position with Australia worsened to -$5.85bn, from -$3.05bn, likely on account of higher imports of iron ore from Australia.
- The trade deficit with Taiwan was modestly tighter at -$12.60bn.
Fig 1: China's Trade Balance US (White Line) & EU (Orange Line)
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg
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AUD: AUD/USD - Struggles To Stay Below 0.6000
Apr-09 03:33
After opening very heavy and making new lows to 0.5915 the AUD has bounced back to 0.6000 as the USD gives back some of its overnight gains. This is striking as US treasuries yields continue to tear higher touching 4.37% in Asia.
- The Asian range has been 0.5915 - 0.6002.
- Very interesting price action today with risk under pressure and US yields higher. Amazingly the AUD has had a decent bounce and is struggling to maintain a foothold sub 0.6000.
- 650m 0.5975 expiring today
- The AUD has been trading poorly across the board in recent days reflecting the markets negative sentiment, the price action today though seems to imply someone is taking advantage of cheap levels and taking some off the table.
- While global markets remain under pressure the AUD will find supply on bounces, expect levels around 0.6100/0.6200 to find resistance.
- Data : FOMC minutes
AUDUSD
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg
ASIA STOCKS: Huge Outflows Across Major Markets.
Apr-09 03:27
With further tariff headlines spooking markets, data shows that the ongoing outflows from Asia equities continue.
- South Korea: Recorded outflows of -$483m as of yesterday, bringing the 5-day total to -$4,987m. 2025 to date flows are -$10,565, m. The 5-day average is -$997m, the 20-day average is -$260m and the 100-day average of -$154m.
- Taiwan: Had outflows of -$887m as of yesterday, with total outflows of -$411m over the past 5 days. YTD flows are negative at -$17,843. The 5-day average is -$82m, the 20-day average of -$397m and the 100-day average of -$243m.
- India: Had outflows of -$1,041m as of 7th, with total outflows of -$2,617m over the past 5 days. YTD flows are negative -$15,414m. The 5-day average is -$523m, the 20-day average of -$24m and the 100-day average of -$151m.
- Indonesia: Had outflows of -$228m as yesterday, with total inflows of -$32m over the prior five days. YTD flows are negative -$2,058m. The 5-day average is -$6m, the 20-day average -$36m and the 100-day average -$35m
- Thailand: Recorded outflows of -$71m yesterday, totaling -$230m over the past 5 days. YTD flows are negative at -$1,402m. The 5-day average is -$46m, the 20-day average of -$32m the 100-day average of -$19m.
- Malaysia: Recorded outflows of -$89m as of yesterday, totaling -$422m over the past 5 days. YTD flows are negative at -$2,664m. The 5-day average is -$84m, the 20-day average of -$67m the 100-day average of -$39m.
- Philippines: Saw outflows of -$7m as of yesterday, with net outflows of -$83m over the past 5 days. YTD flows are negative at -$292m. The 5-day average is -$17m, the 20-day average of -$3m the 100-day average of -$6m.
CHINA: Bond Futures Rally as Equities Decline Again.
Apr-09 03:11
- As equities head lower again today, bond futures are up across all maturities.
- The 10YR bond future is up +.13 at 109.07 as it trades further away from the nearest moving average; the merged 20-day and 50-day EMA of 108.18.
- The 2YR bond future is up+0.03 at 102.63, as it breaks back above all major moving averages with today’s move. Its nearest moving average is the 100-day EMA at 102.60.
- China’s 10YR government bond yield is declining further, down -2bps at 1.64%
