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• MNI: UK OCT BRC SHOP PRICES -0.3% M/M, +1.0% Y/Y

The BRC-NIQ Shop Price Monitor showed the first slowdown in the Y/Y pace of growth of the year, with overall shop price inflation falling to 1.0%Y/Y in October, from 1.4%Y/Y in September. And it helps to validate some of the food price falls seen in the official ONS CPI release - particularly on the ambient side.

• Looking into the details, food price inflation slowed to 3.7%Y/Y in October, a 0.5ppt slowdown after two months at 4.2% in September and August. This was the first slowdown in food price inflation of 2025, but it is hard to know whether this will have any knock on impact to the official ONS food price inflation series - given that already fell from 5.1%Y/Y in August to 4.5%Y/Y in September. It does, however, seem to support that food price inflation may already have peaked, and may therefore give more confidence to MPC members ahead of the November policy decision.
• Looking into the details, there was still an increase in fresh food inflation, which ticked up to 4.2%Y/Y (from 4.1% in both August and September) to the highest Y/Y print since January 2024. Ambient food inflation, meanwhile fell to 2.9%Y/Y in October. This is the lowest level since February and had reached a peak of 5.1%Y/Y in July (it was 4.2%Y/Y in September). The press release notes that "Easing global sugar prices helped to bring down prices of chocolate and confectionary."
• Non-food price inflation fell 0.4%Y/Y in October, after a fall of 0.1%Y/Y in September and fall of 0.8%Y/Y in August. The press release notes that "discounts came early to electricals and health & beauty, as retailers started promotions ahead of Black Friday month."
• The release covers the period 1-7 October 2025 (earlier in the month than the ONS collects data for its official CPI print).

NZ’S household living-costs price index (HLPI) for Q3 rose 2.4% y/y, below the CPI at 3.0%, down from 2.6% in Q2 and 3.8% in Q3 2024. It tends to lead real private consumption growth by two to six quarters, as lower living cost inflation boosts real incomes and thus purchasing power. The recent trend signals that the tentative recovery in spending growth should continue after Q2’s 1.5% y/y rate. 

NZ household cost of living vs consumption %

• The RBNZ’s 250bp of easing to end-September has made a major contribution to moderating living costs with the interest HLPI -14.3% y/y in Q3 after -7.7% y/y. It peaked at +44.9% y/y in Q4 2022.
• Interest payments on all types of loans are likely to continue to aid households as the OCR was cut 50bp in October and another 25bp is expected on 26 November as well as the continued rolling over of mortgages onto lower rates.
• Rental cost inflation also moderated in Q3 to 2.6% y/y from 3.4%.
• Electricity costs and council rates remain a burden for households rising 11.3% y/y and 8.8% y/y in Q3 respectively.
• HLPI inflation ran above the CPI for around three years before falling below it in Q2 2025.

NZ HLPI y/y%

Source: MNI - Market News/Statistics NZ