OIL PRODUCTS: China Gasoline Demand Stabilising and Inventories Decline: OilChem
Feb-17 11:16
Gasoline demand is stabilising with run rates at state-owned refineries up +0.52% to 77.3%, Shandong teapots unchanged at 64.5% and independent refiners down -1.71% to 62.18% according to OilChem.
- China’s commercial gasoline inventories fell 1.4% to 14.5m tons in the week to 16 Feb according to OilChem. Diesel stockpiles increased 1.6% to 16.6m tons.
- Transportation fuel demand surged in Jan during the month of the Lunar New Year holiday, boosting refining margins and providing support to throughput.
- February independent refinery throughout is supported by good margins but with growth capped by planned maintenance according to JLC last week.
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LOOK AHEAD: Wednesday Data Calendar: Retail Sales, PPI, IP/Cap-U, Fed Speak
Jan-18 11:16
Crowded data release schedule for Wednesday includes Fed speakers, Beige Book release, 20Y Bond auction re-open.
- US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate)
- Jan-18 0700 MBA Mortgage Applications (1.2%, --)
- Jan-18 0830 Retail Sales MoM (-0.6%, -0.9%); Ex Auto MoM (-0.2%, -0.5%)
- Jan-18 0830 Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas (-0.2%, +0.0%)
- Jan-18 0830 Retail Sales Control Group (-0.2%, -0.3%)
- Jan-18 0830 PPI Final Demand MoM (0.3%, -0.1%); YoY (7.4%, 6.8%)
- Jan-18 0830 PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM (0.4%, 0.1%); YoY (6.2%, 5.6%)
- Jan-18 0830 PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM (0.3%, 0.2%); YoY (4.9%.4.6%)
- Jan-18 0830 New York Fed Services Business Activity (-17.6, --)
- Jan-18 0900 Atl Fed Bostic open remark
- Jan-18 0915 Industrial Production MoM (-0.2%, -0.1%); Cap-U (79.7%, 79.5%)
- Jan-18 0930 StL Fed Bullard, WSJ live event
- Jan-18 1000 Business Inventories (0.3%, 0.4%)
- Jan-18 1000 NAHB Housing Market Index (31, 31)
- Jan-18 1130 US Tsy $36B 17W Bill Sale
- Jan-18 1300 US Tsy $12B 20Y reopen (912810TMO1)
- Jan-18 1400 Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book
- Jan-18 1400 Philly Fed Harker eco-outlook
- Jan-18 1600 Net Long-term TIC Flows ($67.8B, --); Total Net ($179.9N, --)
- Jan-18 1700 Dallas Fed Logan speaks, moderated Q&A
EUROZONE T-BILL ISSUANCE: 3/6-month EU-bill auction results
Jan-18 11:12
| Type | 3-month EU-bill | 6-month EU-bill |
| Maturity | Apr 7, 2023 | Jul 7, 2023 |
| Amount | E886mln | E921mln |
| Target | E1bln | E1bln |
| Previous | E900mln | E1.438bln |
| Avg yield | 2.194% | 2.556% |
| Previous | 2.137% | 2.556% |
| Bid-to-cover | 3.68x | 3.74x |
| Previous | 3.89x | 1.95x |
| Previous date | Jan 04, 2023 | Jan 04, 2023 |
OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - USDJPY Remains Below The 20-Day EMA
Jan-18 11:11
- In FX, the EURUSD outlook remains bullish and trend signals continue to point north. The recent break of 1.0787, the May 30 2022 high and a key resistance, reinforces a bullish theme and note that moving average studies continue to highlight a bullish backdrop. Sights are on 1.0913, the 2.764 projection of the Sep 28 - Oct 4 - Oct 13 price swing. Initial firm support lies at 1.0690, the 20-day EMA.
- GBPUSD maintains a bullish tone and is trading higher today. The pair has recently cleared resistance at 1.2303, the 76.4% retracement of the Dec 14 - Jan 6 bear leg. The clear breach exposes 1.2446, the Dec 14 high and a key hurdle for bulls. On the downside, initial firm support is seen at 1.2133, the 20-day EMA.
- USDJPY rallied earlier today following the BoJ decision. Resistance at the 20-day EMA, at 131.71, remains intact and the pair has pulled back to trade below 130.00. The primary downtrend remains intact and gains are considered corrective - for now. A clear break of the 20-day EMA is required to signal scope for a stronger recovery that would open 132.87, the Jan 11 high. Key support has been defined at 127.23, the Jan 16 low.
