MIDEAST: China FM-Supports Iran Efforts To "Achieve A Real Ceasefire"
(MNI) London - The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs has released a statement following a call between Foreign Minsiter Wang Yi and his Iranian counterpart Abbas Araghchi. The Iranian minister "thanked China for its understanding and support for Iran's legitimate position, and was willing to maintain close communication with China, and expected China to play a greater role in easing the situation." Wang says that "China supports Iran's efforts to safeguard its sovereignty and security, and on this basis, achieve a real ceasefire, let the people resume normal life, and promote the cooling of the situation in the Middle East as soon as possible."
- Today Wang also held a call with Turkish FM Hakan Fidan. During that call, he made similar comments, saying "China has maintained communication with Iran, Israel and relevant parties, and looks forward to achieving a real ceasefire and effectively implementing it. All parties should learn lessons, restart dialogue on an equal basis, and push the Iranian nuclear issue back on the track of political settlement. "
- China's reliance on MENA oil and gas means Beijing will have been strongly pushing for a de-escalation, but as Washington Post notes, “China has little ability to affect the situation directly,” said William Figueroa, a China-Iran expert at the University of Groningen in the Netherlands. “China does not benefit from any kind of wider conflict,” he said, but “has no ability to militarily influence that conflict.”
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JGB TECHS: (M5) Rallies off Lows
- RES 3: 147.74 - High Jan 15 and bull trigger (cont)
- RES 2: 146.53 - High Aug 6
- RES 1: 141.48/142.95 - High May 2 / High Apr 7
- PRICE: 139.40 @ 15:42 GMT May 23
- SUP 1: 138.54 - Low May 22
- SUP 2: 136.57 - 1.382 proj of the Jan 28 - Feb 20 - Feb 26 bear leg
- SUP 3: 134.89 - 2.000 proj of the Jan 28 - Feb 20 - Feb 26 bear leg
JGBs have rallied off recent lows and for now, however a bearish theme remains intact following the reversal that started Apr 7. A continuation lower would signal scope for an extension towards 136.57, a Fibonacci projection. On the upside, a reversal higher would instead refocus attention on 142.95, the Apr 7 high. The first important resistance to watch is 141.48, the May 2 high. A break of this level would be viewed as an early bullish signal.
US FISCAL: Total Tariff Income Jumping In May As New Rates Hit
Treasury reported a record $16.5B in customs/excise taxes on May 22, reflecting the large increase in tariff rates that went into effect in April.
- Today's report is important because it represents the largest tariff collections of the month which are typically on a due date around the 22nd, when most corporate importers make their payments.
- Thursday's one-day collection is a record, and the month has already set a new record. Tariff revenues have totaled $22.3B so far in May, and are came in at $17.4B in April (after averaging $8.1B/month in 2024).
- For the fiscal year as a whole so far, customs duties have totaled just under $93B, per the Treasury Daily Statement.
US FISCAL: Extraordinary Measures Continue To Dissipate Alongside Treasury Cash
Treasury's latest estimate of the size of "extraordinary measures" available to use "in order to prevent the United States from defaulting on its obligations as Congress deliberate[s] on increasing the debt limit" is down to $67B on May 21 (of an available $299B), vs $82B a week earlier.
- The amount hit the 2nd lowest level since the debt limit impasse started, at $46B, on May 20 (the low was $34B on Feb 24).
- With $476B in cash in the Treasury General Account on May 21, that left the total resources available to Treasury at $543B, the least since April 14 - the day before the annual April 15 tax deadline.
- Treasury Sec Bessent warned Congress earlier this month that "there is a reasonable probability that the federal government's cash and extraordinary measures will be exhausted in August while Congress is scheduled to be in recess. Therefore, I respectfully urge Congress to increase or suspend the debt limit by mid-July".
