CHINA PRESS: China Extends Tax Benefit For Property Buyers
China will extend its personal income tax refund policy for homeowners who sell their own residences and repurchase a home on the market within one year, 21st Century Business Herald reports. Specifically, if the purchase price of the new home is equal to or higher than the price of the previous home, the full amount of personal income tax paid will be refunded. The extension will be in effect from Jan 1, 2026, to Dec 31, 2027. In certain cases, individuals are not required to pay personal income tax when selling their homes, as many cities offer preferential tax policies for residential transactions. For example, in Shanghai, if an individual sells a self-occupied home that has been owned for more than five years and is the family’s only residence, the income from the transaction is exempt from personal income tax.
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CROSS ASSET: US Equity Futures Weaker, Risk Off In G10 FX Space
US equity futures are down noticeably in the first part of Tuesday trade. There doesn't appear to be a fresh catalyst in terms of news flow so far today driving the move. We do have important US data later (payrolls and retail sales out), with markets potentially lightening risk ahead of these prints. The tech side is again leading. Nasdaq futures were off over 0.80% a short while ago, but now sit slightly firmer (last -0.50%, while Eminis are down 0.50%), We are under the 50-day EMA for Nasdaq futures, but above 100-day EMA support, see the chart below. Nov's dip under the 100-day EMA ultimately proved a good buying opportunity.
- In Asian equity markets, tech related indices are weaker, the Kospi off over 1.5%, while Japan markets are down over 1%. China's MSCI index is now down 10% from the Oct 2 high. Markets in SEA, rest of Asia Pac are down more modestly, or slightly higher.
- Bitcoin is also weaker, although only down marginally, at -0.30% (last under 86k). Yen and CHF are outperforming in the G10 FX space, while AUD and NZD are down around 0.30% each. AUD/JPY is nearing 102.50.
- US Tsy yields are lower, but losses aren't beyond 1bps at this stage.
Fig 1: Nasdaq Equity Futures Versus Key EMAs
Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P./MNI
JGBS: Little Changed Ahead Of This Week's Expected BOJ Hike
In Tokyo morning trade, JGB futures are little changed, -2 compared to settlement levels.
- The BOJ is widely expected to raise its policy interest rate by 25 basis points to 0.75% at the upcoming December 18–19 Monetary Policy Meeting. Governor Kazuo Ueda has recently taken a more open approach to communications, signalling growing confidence in the BOJ’s outlook for economic activity and prices. In a speech on 1 December, he noted that “the likelihood of the baseline scenario for economic activity and prices being realised is gradually increasing,” and highlighted that the BOJ is independently gathering information on the early momentum of the spring labour–management wage negotiations.
- Policy Board members Junko Koeda and Kazuyuki Masu have also indicated that “the conditions for a rate rise are gradually falling into place.”
- Cash US tsys are ~1bp richer in today's Asia-Pac session ahead of Tuesday's heavy data schedule that includes headline NFP for November, weekly ADP, Retail Sales and S&P Global flash PMIs.
- Cash JGBs are little changed across benchmarks out to the 20-year, and 1bp richer (30-year) to 1bp cheaper (40-year) beyond. The benchmark 10-year yield is 0.6bps higher at 1.962% versus the cycle high of 1.976%.
- Swap rates are little changed.
Source: Bloomberg Finance LP
US TSYS: Yields Continue to Drift Lower, TYH6 Wedged Between Key Tech Levels
US treasury futures began the trading day stronger in Asia but have failed to follow on with further gains. The US 10-Yr opened up +02 at 112-11+ and remains there towards the end of the morning session. TYH6 is wedged between its 100-day EMA of 112-14+ as topside resistance and the bottom side resistance of the 200-day EMA at 111-30.
Cash has a bid tone to it with 5-Yr + maturities lower in yield whilst the front end is unchanged.
- The 2-Yr is at 3.504%
- The 5-Yr is at 3.723% : -0.3bps
- The 10-Yr is at 4.17% : -0.6bps
- The 30-Yr is at 4.842% : -0.5bps.
Tonight there is a US$75bn 6-week auction as the primary focus.
