MNI EXCLUSIVE: China Auto Industry Expert On Outlook For Car Sales

The AUD/USD has had a range today of 0.6843-0.6872 in the Asia- Pac session, it is currently trading around 0.6870,-0.05%. The AUD initially moved below 0.6850 but has since pared back some of its early losses as risk looks to fill in the early morning Asian gap. Reports Israel has hit Iran’s energy infrastructure during the supposed 10-day pause and the Washington post is reporting the US is preparing for boots on the ground added to the AUD’s early headwinds. Today reports Iran is retaliating against Kuwait power and water desalination plants lines up with how they have previously responded with an equivalent retaliation. US stocks broke some big levels at the end of last week and oil is again pressing the offer just above $100 in WTI as risk looks to be in real trouble and potentially turning into a Bear market. This leaves a market that is long AUD a little vulnerable as the USD begins to outperform. On the day, the first resistance is back toward the 0.6910-0.6940 area looking for this break below 0.6900 to gain momentum and potentially test lower. I suspect the target is back toward the 0.6650-0.6700 area where I would look for demand to remerge. Corporate month-end demand for USD’s could also start weighing on the pair, watch for flows today with the majority normally being executed in the London afternoon. 

• MNI POLICY: RBA Believes Labour Market Can Absorb Higher Rates. The Reserve Bank of Australia is likely to calculate that a still-tight labour market should allow the economy to absorb some impact from weaker global growth or higher interest rates, MNI understands.
• "AUSTRALIAN ENERGY MINISTER CHRIS BOWEN SPEAKS IN CANBERRA, SAYS CONFIDENT IN FUEL SUPPLIES UNTIL MAY" - BBG
• "AUSTRALIA'S ALBANESE: GOVERNMENT WILL HALF FUEL EXERCISE ON PETROL AND DIESEL FOR THREE MONTHS - [RTRS]"
• CFTC Data up to 24/03/2026 shows Asset managers adding slightly their recently acquired longs, +45299(Last +42660). The Leveraged community pared back ever so slightly their own core longs, +45029(Last +45536). 
• Options : Closest significant option expiries for NY cut, based on DTCC data: none. Upcoming Close Strikes : 0.6825(AUD1.35b Mar 31), 0.7080(AUD1.09b Mar 31) - BBG
• The AUD/USD Average True Range for the last 10 Trading days: 74 Points

Fig 1: AUD CFTC Data

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P

• China's 10-Yr bond future has surged +.09 to 108.315, breaking above a key tech level.  
• The gains see it back above the 20-day EMA of 108.27, which it failed to hold above back in mid March.
• The 2-Yr bond future is up  +.04 at 102.546 to further consolidate it's position above all major moving averages.  
• The 10-Yr CGB remains around 1.81% and has traded in a range of 1.75 - 1.83% in March.  
• Risk sentiment is relatively weak in China today with the HSI down -1.1%, the CSI 300 down -0.27% whilst Shanghai is up +0.08% and bucking the trend.  

A prominent Chinese political scientist and government advisor provides insight into China-U.S. relations.  On MNI Policy MainWire now, for more details please contact sales@marketnews.com.