EURUSD TECHS: Channel Resistance Remains Intact
- RES 4: 1.0852 High Apr 22
- RES 3: 1.0787 High May 30 and a reversal trigger
- RES 2: 1.0642/0774 50-day EMA / High Jun 9
- RES 1: 1.0615/18 High Jun 27 / Bear channel top from Feb 10 high
- PRICE: 1.0510 @ 06:06 BST Jun 29
- SUP 1: 1.0445/0359 Low Jun 17 and 15
- SUP 2: 1.0350 Low May 13 and bear trigger
- SUP 3: 1.0341 Low Jan 3 2017 and a key support
- SUP 4: 1.0233 1.382 proj of Feb 10 - Mar 7 - 31 Price swing
EURUSD has pulled away from its most recent highs. This means that key resistance at 1.0618 remains intact - the top of a bear channel drawn from the Feb 10 high. The primary trend direction is down and the outlook remains bearish. Moving average studies also point south and a break lower would refocus attention on 1.0350, May 13 low and the bear trigger. A clear break of 1.0618 however would alter the picture and highlight a channel breakout.
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EQUITIES: The Bid Extends
The combination of positive spill over from Friday’s U.S. equity trade (whereby the S&P 500 added 2.5% on the day, providing the firmest weekly gains observed for the index since late ’20), the unwind of some COVID-related restrictions in the Chinese cities of Beijing & Shanghai and the deployment of fresh support measures for Shanghai’s economy buoyed risk appetite in Asia. This extended what some perceive to be a bear market rally, while month-end rebalancing flows provide another potential supportive factor for U.S. equities. The Hang Seng & the Nikkei 225 added ~2.0% against this backdrop, while e-mini futures print 0.2-1.0% firmer on the day, with the NASDAQ 100 contract leading the bid there.
BOBL TECHS: (M2) Watching The 50-Day EMA
- RES 4: 129.770 High Mar 29
- RES 3: 129.350 High Apr 4 and a reversal point
- RES 2: 128.380 High May 12
- RES 1: 128.258 50-day EMA
- PRICE: 127.470 @ Close of May 27
- SUP 1: 126.610/126.010 Low May 18 / Low May 6 and a bear trigger
- SUP 2: 126.00 Round number support
- SUP 3: 125.450 0.618 proj of the Mar 7 - 29 - Apr 4 price swing
- SUP 4: 125.260 Low Apr 24 20014 (cont)
Bobl futures remain in consolidation mode. Price, on May 12, probed resistance at 128.310, the Apr 14/28 high. A resumption of strength and a clear breach of 128.310 would leave the 50-day EMA at 128.258 exposed. A clear breach of the average would signal scope for a stronger corrective cycle. The primary trend remains down, a resumption of weakness would refocus attention on the bear trigger at 126.010.
EURJPY TECHS: Consolidating
- RES 4: 141.06 High Jun 4 2015 and a key resistance
- RES 3: 140.87 0.50 proj of the Mar 7 - 28 - Apr 5 price swing
- RES 2: 138.32/140.00 High May 9 / High Apr 21 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: 136.80 High May 23
- PRICE: 136.40 @ 22:11 BST May 29
- SUP 1: 133.93 Low May 19
- SUP 2: 132.81/66 100-dma / Low May 12 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: 132.20 50% retracement of the Mar 7 - Apr 21 bull phase
- SUP 4: 131.59 Low Mar 22
EURJPY is consolidating. On May 23, the cross attempted a break of resistance at 136.75, May 12 high, before pulling back. 132.66, the May 12 low, has been defined as a key S/T support. The recovery from 132.66 threatens a recent bearish theme. An extension higher would open 138.32, May 9 high and an important S.T resistance. On the downside, clearance of 132.66 would be a bearish development. This would open 132.20.
