BOE: Changes to money market tools including ILTR

Dec-09 11:44

The BOE has released two statements on the BOE's money market tools ILTR (PRA statement here) and a discussion paper on the transition to a repo-led operating framework (available here). As part of this, the Bank has opened a consultation - with a deadline for feedback of 31 January 2025.

  • From Q2 (proposed date) the reserves available in each auction ILTR will increase from GBP25bln to GBP30bln. The Bank notes that this would mean an increase in the maximum ILTR stock available to GBP720bln.
  • "The Bank will improve predictability of allocation for SMF participants during the early stages of transition by increasing the quantity supplied at minimum spreads by 40%–100%, to £7 billion–£10 billion per auction. This is up from £5 billion today. This would increase the stock of reserves available at minimum spreads from £120 billion today to £168 billion–£240 billion."
  • "The Bank is still reviewing how the total quantity of reserves supplied in the ILTR is allocated to different collateral sets."
  • "Further changes to the ILTR to ensure it is appropriately calibrated to supply a larger stock of reserves for the transition to a repo-led framework will take effect in 2025. Further details on these changes will be announced by the Bank in due course once responses to the Discussion Paper have been taken into consideration."
  • Note that Deputy Governor Ramsden is speaking at 13:00GMT today on the BOE's toolkit - so he is likely to elaborate on today's announcements.
  • There should be no immediate market impact from these operations - but they increase the Bank's role in a demand-led framework going forward and should help to cushion any small liquidity bumps in the market.

Historical bullets

JGB TECHS: (Z4) Bounce Reverses

Nov-08 23:45
  • RES 3: 149.55 - High Mar 22 (cont)
  • RES 2: 147.74 - High Jan 15 and bull trigger (cont)  
  • RES 1: 146.53 - High Aug 6 
  • PRICE: 143.70 @ 16:14 GMT Nov 08
  • SUP 1: 143.39 - Low Nov 07
  • SUP 2: 142.23 - Low Jul 02
  • SUP 3: 140.21 - 1.236 proj of Mar 22 - Nov 1 ‘23 - Jan 15 price swing    

Prices fell further Thursday, extending the recent pullback. The return lower at the start of this week has culminated in a break of 143.57, marking both the Jul 17 high on the continuation contract as well as the Oct 22 low. For now, the 50-dma tops out at 144.32, and marks first resistance. A continuation higher would open 146.53, the Aug 6 high (cont) and a bull trigger. 

US TSY FUTURES: BLOCK: Late 2Y/10Y Ultra-Bond Flattener

Nov-08 22:48
  • Flattener crossed late Friday at 1645:30ET, DV01 $322,000
  • -8,900 TUZ4 102-23.88, sell through 102-24.38 post time bid vs.
  • +3,700 UXYZ4 113-16, post time offer 

USDCAD TECHS: Trend Needle Points North

Nov-08 21:00
  • RES 4: 1.4179 2.0% 10-dma envelope  
  • RES 3: 1.4000 Round number resistance
  • RES 2: 1.3977 High Oct 13 and a key M/T resistance  
  • RES 1: 1.3959 High Nov 1 / 6
  • PRICE: 1.3910 @ 16:29 GMT Nov 8
  • SUP 1: 1.3836/22 20-day EMA and a key S/T support / Low Nov 6 
  • SUP 2: 1.3744 50-day EMA 
  • SUP 3: 1.3611 Low Oct 8 
  • SUP 4: 1.3567 Low Oct 7

USDCAD reversed course Wednesday and recovered from Tuesday's low. The trend outlook is unchanged, it remains bullish. Attention is the key resistance at 1.3946, the Aug 5 high. This hurdle has been pierced, a clear break would strengthen the uptrend and open 1.3977, the Oct 13 high and a key medium-term resistance point. Initial firm support to watch lies at 1.3836, the 20-day EMA.