US DATA: Challenger Job Cuts Trimmed In Dec, Strong Increase In 2025 Confirmed
Jan-08 10:38
The Challenger jobs report saw a modest Y/Y decline in December as they moderated further after a particularly sharp increase in October. Private job cut announcements increased 24% to nearly 900k across 2025, confirming its highest since 2008 aside from 2020. Warehousing and retail have provided the largest annual increase for private industries whilst an impressive 12 of 30 industries saw lower job cut announcements than a year ago, led by aerospace/defense.
- An early release of a pdf for the Challenger jobs report in December shows job cut announcements at 35.6k for a -8% Y/Y decline from the 38.8k in Dec 2024.
- It follows the particularly sharp 175% Y/Y increase in Oct to a huge 153k (highest for an October since 2003) and a more measured 24% increase to 71k in Nov.
- Some mixed but not particularly large industry changes on a Y/Y basis in Dec: the largest decline came from food (3.6k vs 10k), health care (1.8k vs 4.3k), tech (0.9k vs 3.3k) and retail (1.0k vs 3.3k) whilst the largest increase came from services (5.7k vs 2.4k) and transportation (3.1k vs 1.0k). Services include companies that provide support to other businesses such as cleaning, staffing, and outsourcing firms.
- Away from monthly noise, the annual total jumped 58% to 1.21mn vs 0.76mn in 2024. The government had an unusually large contribution, adding 217k in March alone on DOGE efforts and 308k for 2025 as a whole.
- Indeed, the private sector reported a more modest but still notable 24% increase to 898k after two years at ~720k. Exclude the 2020 pandemic and this is a fresh high since the 1.1mn in both 2008 and 2009 on this private basis.
- The largest contributors to this private annual increase were warehousing (95k vs 23k in 2024, +72k), retail (93k vs 42k, +51k), services (75k vs 44k,+30k), telecomms (38k vs 11k, +28k), non-profits (29k vs 6k, +23k) and tech (154k vs 134k, +20k).
- 12 of the 30 industries reported by Challenger saw annual declines meanwhile, led by aerospace/defense (4k vs 30k, -25k), autos (32k vs 48k, -16k) and entertainment/leisure (25k vs 35k, -11k).
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BELGIUM T-BILL AUCTION RESULTS: TCs
Dec-09 10:36
| Maturity | Mar 12, 2026 | Dec 10, 2026 |
| Amount | E1.47bln | E1.73bln |
| Target | E2.8-3.2bln | Shared |
| Previous | E1.003bln | E1.156bln |
| Avg yield | 1.964% | 2.111% |
| Previous | 1.969% | 2.048% |
| Bid-to-cover | 1.84x | 1.55x |
| Previous | 1.92x | 2.11x |
| Previous date | Dec 02, 2025 | Dec 02, 2025 |
EGBS: Recoveries In Bund Futures Considered Corrective For Now
Dec-09 10:31
Bund futures have moved away from multi-week lows this morning, currently +37 ticks at 127.66. Recoveries are still considered corrective for now, with initial resistance not seen till 128.08 (Dec 8 high). Volumes have been very healthy, seemingly reflecting a mix of views around whether the recent selloff can extend, or if a relief rally is more likely.
- 10-year Bund yields are down 2bps to 2.84%, after briefly reaching 2.88% this morning. The 2.90% figure presents the initial topside target, shielding the March 12 high of 2.94%.
- The German 10s30s curve is ~0.5bps steeper at ~60bps, after flattening around 5bps yesterday. The EUR 10s30s swaps curve is little changed at ~29bps. Given recent hawkish repricing in EUR rates has been primarily driven by the front-end, flattening further out the curve may represent unwinds of popular steepener positions related to the Dutch pension fund transition.
- 10-year EGB spreads to Bunds are up to 1bp wider on the session, with BTP/Bund spread back above 70bps. However, widening in the BTP/Bund spread has still been fairly contained considering the sharp uptick in EUR rates vol.
- In France, focus remains on this afternoon's National Assembly vote on the 2026 Social Security budget. The outcome remains very close to call.
- Ireland plans to issue E10-14bln of bonds with one syndication in 2026. This is a bit higher than expected, but there has so far been limited reaction in Irish bond markets.
- Today’s regional data calendar has been light, with some focus on US job openings data this afternoon ahead of tomorrow’s Fed decision.
FOREX: USDJPY Recovery Extends, AUD Outperforming Post-RBA
Dec-09 10:18
- USDJPY extended overnight gains through the European open, briefly printing 156.43, but stalling ahead of 156.58 resistance, the November 28 high. While interest rate correlations have been weaker in recent months, this week's corrective strength has been underpinned by hawkish repricing across core FI markets. A subsequent 30 pip fade off highs coincided with a downtick in the US 10y yield, followed by a Ueda interview which does little to dispel BOJ hiking expectations for December.
- AUD outperforms in the aftermath of the RBA, with the latest downtick for the DXY propelling AUDUSD back towards session highs. 0.6650 has continued to hold across the last three sessions, and a break above would likely prompt some momentum demand. Alongside the RBA’s expected hold at 3.6%, the board sees the balance of risks tilted toward a potential rate hike in 2026 to contain inflation, with cuts firmly off the table, according to Governor Bullock. 0.6707 remains the key AUDUSD resistance, the Sep 17 high.
- It is worth highlighting that NZDUSD has traded all the way back to its medium-term pivot at 0.5800, potentially providing an opportunity to re-establish longs in AUDNZD, which has been in a very strong uptrend across the second half of 2025. The cross has remained well supported by the 50-day EMA, intersecting around the 1.14 mark.
- Ahead of the AUD, the Swedish Krona tops the G10 leaderboard amid the stable risk backdrop Tuesday. Recent domestic data has suggested an economic recovery is taking hold in Sweden, helping EURSEK narrow the gap to support at 10.8815.
- BOE Deputy Governors Lombardelli and Ramsden, and external rate-setters Mann and Dhingra speak at Parliament's Treasury Committee later today. The data calendar sees the US weekly ADP release, NFIB small business index, weekly redbook retail sales, and JOLTS job openings ahead of tomorrow's FOMC.
