NBP: Central Bank Analysts See Polish Economy Close To Equilibrium

NBP Economic Analysis and Research Department Director Jacek Kotłowski says that the Polish economy is very close to the state of equilibrium and is expected to remain there through the forecast horizon. He is delivering a presentation of the new Inflation Report released earlier this morning.

• Discussing external factors, Kotłowski plays down the impact of German fiscal stimulus on the Polish economy and explains that Polish exports to Germany are mostly consumption and intermediary goods. German stimulus is tailored to boost investments, which will limit its impact on the Polish economy. Kotłowski points to a 'strong disinflationary impulse' from the Chinese economy.
• Based on encouraging high-frequency economic activity indicators released after the October 15 cut-off point, the NBP now expects GDP growth in 3Q25 to accelerate to around +3.5-3.6% Y/Y (rather than +3.3% in the projection). Kotłowski notes that data from the industry were particularly upbeat.
• Flash October CPI readings suggest that core inflation may have dropped 'significantly' last month. There may be a slight increase in headline inflation around the turn of the year and disinflation may slow in 2026 but it should remain stable.
• Kotłowski points to the continued normalisation of the pace of wage growth, which is expected to gradually converge with productivity growth. He says that lower inflation and more moderate minimum-wage hikes are facilitating the process.
• The output gap is slightly negative and will turn slightly positive next year, but overall it will oscillate around zero, which is consistent with the +2.5% Y/Y inflation target.