EMERGING MARKETS: CEEMEA FX Price Signal Summary - USDZAR Trend Still Bearish
Nov-19 12:15
- The trend condition in USDZAR is unchanged and remains bearish. Last week’s move down marks an extension of the reversal that started on Nov 5, and reinforces current conditions. Key support and the bear trigger at 17.0683, the Oct 9 low, has been cleared. This resumes the medium-term downtrend and opens 16.8280, the 1.00 projection of the Sep - Oct 9 - Nov 5 price swing. The 1.236 projection is at 16.6508. Key resistance is at 17.5787, the Nov 5 high. Initial resistance is at 17.3294, the 50-day EMA. Gains are for now, considered corrective.
- The path of least resistance in USDTRY is unchanged and remains up. The pair has crossed the 42.00 handle, this opens 43.00 A reliable trend support lies at 42.0977, the 20-day EMA.
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EURIBOR OPTIONS: Large Call Spread buyer
Oct-20 12:11
ERH6 98.25/98.37cs, bought for 1.5 in 30k (ref 98.075, 10del).
CHF: EURCHF Nearing Key Support Ahead Of Inaugural SNB Meeting Notes
Oct-20 12:09
- Price action last week saw EURCHF break notably below 0.9300, a support level that has broadly been respected over the last six months. Spot has subsequently narrowed the gap to a crucial cluster of support between 0.9206-22, with Friday's 0.9219 print further strengthening the significance of this area from a technical viewpoint. Clearance of the lows would place EURCHF at its lowest since the peg removal in 2015.
- Domestically in Switzerland, last week's SECO forecasts would be consistent with an SNB policy rate of 0% for the foreseeable future. In real, trade weighted terms, the Franc stands only around 0.7% below the April highs. Clearance of these highs could prompt the SNB to harden their language on the Franc once again, having maintained their usual currency rhetoric in recent months that they remain “willing to be active in the foreign exchange market as necessary".
- This brings particular focus on the inaugural edition of the SNB meeting minutes, which will be published this Thursday. In the minutes, alongside any view on FX valuations, we will look for more insight on whether Chairman Schlegel's non-mention of side effects of potential negative rates in his September opening remarks was a dovish or hawkish policy signal.
- Société Générale write today they "remain in wait-and-see mode" but that "there is merit in […] the safe -haven qualities of the CHF, relative to the EUR and GBP".
- Given the illiquidity back in 2015, support levels below 0.9200 are hard to pin-point. Fibonacci projection levels would place immediate attention on 0.9099 and 0.9032. USDCHF cycle lows at 0.7829 remain the key medium-term support level for the pair.
STIR: Repo Reference Rates: Retreat
Oct-20 12:02
- Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR): 4.18% (-0.12), volume: $3.022T
- Broad General Collateral Rate (BGCR): 4.16% (-0.09), volume: $1.180T
- Tri-Party General Collateral Rate (TCR): 4.16% (-0.09), volume: $1.145T
- (rate, volume levels reflect prior session)
