EMERGING MARKETS: CEEMEA FX Price Signal Summary - EURHUF Trend Needle Points South

Jan-24 11:51

EURHUF trend conditions remain bearish and short-term gains are considered corrective. The cross has recently traded below support at 393.64, the Jan 9 low. A clear break of this support would confirm a resumption of the downtrend and open 391.55, the Aug 12 low, ahead of 390.00 and below. For bulls, initial firm resistance is at 401.85, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this EMA would be a positive development.
The EURPLN outlook still appears bearish despite last Thursday’s spike higher to 4.7453 and the fact that price remains closer to its recent highs. A clear break of resistance at 4.7220, the Dec 6 high, is required to suggest potential for a stronger recovery and open 4.7500 and beyond. Clearance of 4.7453 would also represent a bullish development. A resumption of weakness would refocus attention on 4.6262 next, the Jun 21 low, ahead of the 4.6000 handle.

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Dec-23 19:10

Cash Tsys hold onto further cheapening today at the early close, with yields 5-8.5bps higher on the day but just remaining off pre-U.Mich session highs across 2-10Y tenors.
Those session highs were also month to date highs from 5Y tenors onwards, with the 2Y at highs since the Nov CPI miss on Dec 13 and the subsequent fall in terminal Fed pricing from close to 5% to ~4.9% currently.
2YY +5.0bps at 4.321%, 5YY +5.4bps at 3.857%, 10YY +6.9bps at 3.747% and 30YY +8.5bps at 3.823%.
The first wave of US data were broadly as expected with core PCE inflation moderating and a small beat for income growth, before more mixed 1000ET data with new home sales surprisingly bouncing but importantly U.Mich inflation expectations being revised lower.
Treasury futures are still set for a full session, with TYH3 currently trading 15 ticks lower at 113-02+ having earlier touched 112-31. In the process it cleared support at 113-09+ (Dec 21 low) to open the key short-term 112-11+ (Nov 21 low).

Dec-23 17:20

Hard to see latest drivers but GoC yields across 2-10Y tenors, now up 12bps in the front-end to belly and 10bps for 10Y.
Can-US yield differentials continue to narrow: 2Y at -39bps, 10Y -56bps, both close to highs since the BoC’s surprise Oct downshift.
Move coincides with USDCAD stepping to new session lows to lows since Dec 15 at 1.3563. Support seen 1.3519 (Dec 14 low).

Dec-23 17:05

Treasuries are seeing a re-cheapening of late, with yields back to 5-7bps higher on the day but remaining off pre U.Mich session highs.
Those session (yield) highs were also month to date highs from 5Y tenors onwards, with the 2Y at highs since the Nov CPI miss on Dec 13 and the subsequent fall in terminal Fed pricing from close to 5% to ~4.9% currently.
Only modest steepening on the day with 2s10s +1bp at -57.5bp, within the week’s range of -52 to -70bps.
SIFMA recommends cash close at 1400ET.

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