EMERGING MARKETS: CEEMEA FX Price Signal Summary: EURHUF Is Trading At Its Recent Lows
Aug-12 11:12
- Recent weakness in EURHUF signals potential for a deeper retracement and this has opened the 390.00 handle. The broader uptrend remains intact though and dips are still considered corrective - for now. A stronger reversal higher would open 408.51, the Jul 28 high and further out, the key resistance at 416.89, the Jul 6 high.
- EURPLN has traded lower this week and remains vulnerable. The cross has breached the mid-July lows at 4.6904. The break has strengthened short-term bearish conditions and this has opened 4.6483, the Jun 30 low and 4.6287, 76.4% of the May 30 - Jul 12 bull phase. A reversal higher and a resumption of gains would refocus attention on the first important resistance at 4.8088, the Jul 27 high.
- USDZAR traded lower Wednesday and in the process cleared support at 16.3906, the Jul 29 low. The break lower has also resulted in a breach of the 50-day EMA and signals scope for a deeper pullback. This has opened 15.9787, trendline support drawn from the Apr 13 low. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 16.9441, the Aug 3 high.
- USDTRY trend conditions remain bullish. The 18.00 handle was pierced last week, a clear break would strengthen the bullish theme and open 18.3633, the Dec 20 2021 high and a key resistance. The 20-day EMA, at 17.7625 is the initial firm support to watch.
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US EURODLR FUTURES: Post-LIBOR Settle Update: Ignoring New 3M High
Jul-13 11:07
Lead quarterly EDU2 trades steady to +0.005 at 96.685 after latest 3M LIBOR set' new 3Y high of 2.51200% +0.02900 (+0.08900/wk).
- Forward Fed hike expectations steady after moderating slightly since last Fri's strong jobs data, balance of Whites through Golds (EDZ2-EDM7) +0.025-0.015. Markets await this morning June CPI read for direction.
- Front end inversion at recent lows: Dec'22/Mar'23 at -0.130. Most inverted calendar spds: EDZ2/EDZ3 at -0.635, EDH3/EDH4 at -0.620. Inversion starts to flatten out in latter half of Greens w/ EDH5/EDM5 trading flat (97.220).
- Second consecutive session of limited option volume Tuesday, flow mildly bullish with put unwinds and call buys with underlying futures trading higher, 30YY falling to 3.0833% low before climbing back to 3.1240% after the bell.
- Highlight Eurodollar trade includes put skew sale with 5,000 Dec 96.00 puts 6.0 over 96.25/96.75 call spreads. Midcurve call buyer paid 40.5 for 5,000 Green Dec 97.25 calls vs. 97.185/0.45%.
- Limited SOFR trade had paper buying 7,000 SFRZ2 96.50/97.00/98.00 broken call flys.
US MBA: REFIS +2% SA; PURCH INDEX -4% SA THRU JULY 8 WK
Jul-13 11:00
- US MBA: REFIS +2% SA; PURCH INDEX -4% SA THRU JULY 8 WK
- US MBA: UNADJ PURCHASE INDEX -18% VS YEAR-EARLIER LEVEL
- US MBA: 30-YR CONFORMING MORTGAGE RATE REMAINED AT 5.74%
MNI: US MBA: MARKET COMPOSITE -1.7% SA THRU JUL 08 WK
Jul-13 11:00
- MNI: US MBA: MARKET COMPOSITE -1.7% SA THRU JUL 08 WK
