IRAN: CBS: Trump Not Made Up His Mind On Boots On The Ground

• Reoffer: 101.348 to yield 3.115%
• Size: E750mln
• Books closed in excess of E6.8bln (inc E372.5mln JLM interest)
• Spread set earlier at MS+35bps (guidance was MS+40bp area then MS+37bp area)
• Hedge ratio: 104% vs 2.60% Aug-35 Bund (ref 99.06 / 2.712 / +40.3bp)
• Settlement: 23 February, 2026 (T+5)
• Bookrunners: BNP PARIBAS (B&D), Deutsche Bank, Erste Group, J.P. Morgan
• Timing: TOE 16:21GMT / 17:21CET. FTT immediately

Source: Market source / MNI colour

• EUR/USD: Feb18 $1.1900-20(E1.9bln); Feb19 $1.1725(E1.5bln), $1.1750(E1.5bln) $1.1790-00(E3.4bln), $1.1850(E1.2bln), $1.2000(E2.3bln), $1.2100(E1.3bln)
• USD/JPY: Feb19 Y153.00($2.7bln), Y155.00($1.4bln)
• AUD/USD: Feb18 $0.6980-95(A$1.2bln)
• USD/CAD: Feb18 C$1.3600($1.4bln)

• A positive session for USDCAD on Monday would mark a fourth consecutive day of gains for the pair. Despite this, spot remains within last Monday’s range as the recent greenback decline consolidates overall, keeping a bearish condition for USDCAD intact.
• Sights remain on key support at 1.3482, the Jan 30 low. A clear break of this level would confirm a resumption of the medium-term downtrend.  Key short-term resistance is unchanged at 1.3725, the Feb 2 high. A move through this hurdle would suggest scope for a stronger short-term recovery.
• The focus turns to tomorrow’s CPI report, where underlying inflation is expected to remain on a downward trend in January, though headline will see some upward pressures largely as a result of base effects.
• An as-expected January report won't do much to dampen speculation over a BOC rate hike by year-end, but by the same token it won't take a cut off the table either. Overall MNI's analyst median is for a 2.5% Y/Y headline CPI rate (Bloomberg consensus 2.4%), which would represent a modest uptick from the 2.36% reading in December.
• Some analyst commentary on what to expect in the January inflation report can be found here: https://mni.marketnews.com/4bYxJFU