US TSYS: Cash Bonds Little Changed Ahead Of FOMC Minutes
Jan-08 04:19
TYH5 is 108-05+, flat from NY closing levels.
- Cash bonds are little changed in today’s Asia-Pac session after finishing 2-7bps cheaper yesterday, with a steeper curve, following stronger than expected ISM services and JOLTS data.
- MNI's preview of the Minutes includes what to watch for upon release; MNI's FOMC Hawk-Dove Spectrum; key highlights of FOMC participant commentary since the December meeting; and sell-side analyst expectations. See here
- Reminder, much of Thursday's data has been moved to Wednesday (Wholesale Sales, Weekly Jobless Claims) as well as the 30Y Bond auction re-open to avoid conflicts with Thursday's Federal Holiday/day of Mourning for former President Carter.
- The CME Group FI trade closes at 1315ET on Thursday. Thursday still includes Challenger Job cuts at 0730ET, Tsy 4- & 8W bill auctions at 1130ET, and several scheduled Fed speakers throughout the day.
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ASIA STOCKS: China Down Again as Stimulus Hopes Fade.
Dec-09 04:16
- Last week’s strong finish for China’s major indices faded today as hopes about more stimulus recede.
- Having finished Friday up very strongly, delivering a positive week, the CSI 300 declined -0.50%, Hang Seng -0.54%, Shanghai -0.40% and Shenzhen -0.80%.
- The ongoing uncertainty in Korea continued to weigh heavy on the KOSPI , again making it the worst performer in the region, down -2.50% in today’s trading, following last week’s decline.
- Malaysia’s FTSE KLCI took lead from the other major markets too today and in the absence of any key news, the path of least resistance was to fall and was down -0.30%.
- The Jakarta Composite was one of the few positive stories today rising +0.36% as news breaks on potential VAT changes coming.
- India’s has been a shining star amongst it’s Asia peers in terms of inflows, having turned what was a torrid period of outflows into the last week of strong inflows. The NIFTY 50 had a very good week last week up +2.2% and is starting off the week post no change from the RBI flat as the market digests the implications of the change in the cash deposit rate for banks.
FOREX: US Dollar Stronger Again, Yen Outperforming G10
Dec-09 04:11
The US dollar has continued to strengthen during APAC trading with the BBDXY USD up 0.2% and close to its intraday high. Thus the G10 has seen broad-based weakness against the greenback except for the yen, as was the case on Friday. NZD, NOK and EUR have depreciated the most.
- NZDUSD is down 0.3% to 0.5813, close to the intraday low. The government announced that it would go ahead with a capital injection into Kiwibank of around NZ$500bn. It wants to increase competition in the banking sector.
- Ahead of Tuesday’s RBA decision, AUDNZD is 0.2% higher at 1.0983. The RBA is unanimously expected to leave rates at 4.35%, whereas the RBNZ has eased 125bp this year to 4.25%. AUDUSD is down 0.1% to 0.6384, close to the intraday trough.
- USDJPY has range traded between 149.70 and 150.10. The pair is currently little changed at 149.95. AUDJPY is down 0.1% to 95.74.
- EURUSD is down 0.3% to 1.0537, close to the intraday low. NOK and SEK are also lower leaving the crosses against the euro little changed. EURCHF is down 0.1% to 0.9274 and EURGBP -0.1% to 0.8282.
- Equities are generally lower with the Hang Seng down 0.6%, ASX -0.2% but Nikkei up 0.2% and S&P e-mini flat. Oil prices are moderately higher with WTI +0.4% to $67.46/bbl. Copper is slightly lower and iron ore is steady around $104/t.
- Later November NY Fed 1-year inflation expectations print and ECB’s Cipollone and BoE’s Ramsden speak. The Fed is in its pre-meeting blackout period.
ASIA STOCKS: Strong flows into the Indian market Continue.
Dec-09 03:50
- India’s inflows continued on Thursday, capping off a very strong five-day period.
- South Korea: Recorded outflows of -$175m yesterday, bringing the 5-day total to -$158m. YTD flows remain positive at +$3.798bn. The 5-day average is -$32m, the 20-day average is -$172m and the 100-day average of -$156m.
- Taiwan: Experienced outflows of -$30m yesterday, with total inflows of +$2,616m over the past 5 days. YTD flows are negative at -$16.295bn. The 5-day average is +$523m, the 20-day average of -$229m and the 100-day average of -$199m.
- India: Saw inflows of +$1,120m as of Thursday, with a total inflow of +$2,886m over the previous 5 days. YTD inflows stand at +$4.354bn. The 5-day average is +$577m, the 20-day average of +$79m and the 100-day average of -$6m.
- Indonesia: Posted outflows of -$11m yesterday, bringing the 5-day total to +$67m. YTD flows remain positive at +$1.534b. The 5-day average is +$13m, the 20-day average is -$42m the 100-day average of +$17m.
- Thailand: Recorded outflows of -$47m as of Wednesday, totaling -$77m over the past 5 days. YTD flows are negative at -$3.864bn. The 5-day average is -$15m, the 20-day average of -$15m the 100-day average of -$5m.
- Malaysia: Experienced outflows of -$33m yesterday, contributing to a 5-day outflow of -$171m. YTD flows stand at -$476m. The 5-day average is -$34m, the 20-day average of -$38m the 100-day average of -$6m.
- Philippines: Saw outflows of -$7m yesterday, with net outflows of -$33m over the past 5 days. YTD flows are negative at -$338m. The 5-day average is -$7m, the 20-day average of -$12m the 100-day average of +$2m.
