US TSYS: Cash Bonds Holding Richer Ahead Of Liberation (Tariff) Day

• China’s bond futures are up strongly today with the 10YR leading the gains.
• China’s 10YR bond future is up +.445 at 108.42, following yesterday’s close at 108.06 after a strong rally into market close.
• The move sees the 20-day EMA and the 50-day EMA moving lower with the future currently trending towards the 100-day EMA of 108.02.
• China’s 2YR future is up +.10 at 102.652, following yesterday's close of 102.583.
• The move consolidates the 2YR below the 200-day EMA of 102.63.
• Government bonds are rallying also with the CGB10YR -2bps at 1.76%.
• The rally comes despite a strong day in equities with key bourses higher with the Hang Seng leading up +2.6%

NZGBs closed 1-2bps richer but well off the session’s best levels. 

• With the local calendar light, today’s turnaround can be traced back to cash US tsys, which are currently 2-3bps cheaper in today’s Asia-Pac session. Earlier, the passage of the budget blueprint by the US House provided an upward backdrop for yields.
• "The House budget would pave the way for $4.5 trillion in tax cuts — about enough to pay for extending the expiring cuts but not enough to also cover Trump’s campaign promises for additional tax relief. The measure would add to the budget deficit despite calling for $2 trillion in overall spending cuts over ten years." (per BBG)
• Swap rates closed 2-4bps lower, with the 2s10s curve flatter.
• RBNZ dated OIS pricing is flat to 3bps softer. 26bps of easing is priced for April, with a cumulative 62bps by November 2025.
• Tomorrow, the local calendar will see ANZ Business Confidence.
• Tomorrow, the NZ Treasury plans to sell NZ$225mn of the 3.00% Apr-29 bond, NZ$225mn of the 3.50% Apr-33 bond and NZ$50mn of the 1.75% May-41 bond.

• Tesla is leading losses among the Magnificent Seven, pushing the gauge of the group into correction territory, with the Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Price Return Index down 10% from its December high. Tesla fell 8.39% on Tuesday and has been the biggest laggard, driven by a 45% drop in European sales last month, while rivals saw rising EV demand.
• Amazon & Apple closed little changed, while all other names closed down over 1%
• Nvidia is set to report Q4 earnings on after the US close on Wednesday, with investors watching AI spending trends amid concerns that data center operators may slow expenditures. Analysts are focused on Nvidia’s transition from Hopper to Blackwell chips, which could temporarily impact sales.
• Key estimates include Q4 revenue of $38.25b (data center: $34.06b, gaming: $3.02b), adjusted EPS of $0.84, and a 73.5% gross margin. Q1 revenue is projected at $42.26b, with 2026 revenue estimates at $198.63b. BBG Consensus ratings shows 68 buys, 7 holds, and 1 sell, with an average price target of $174.96 (38.6% upside). Nvidia shares are up 60.2% YoY, and the stock has an implied 8.5% one-day move post-earnings.