THAILAND: Caretaker Dep PM Clarifies That House Speaker Vote Must Take Place No Later Than Jul 13
Jun-29 09:33
Caretaker Deputy Prime Minister Wissanu Krea-ngam, widely known as the government's legal czar, said that the House Speaker vote must be held no more than 10 days after the opening of the new parliamentary session on July 3.
- The official added that if there are more than two candidates, voting may take more than one day. Wissanu does not expect the outgoing ruling coalition to be able to fill the position, as the MFP-led bloc commands a comfortable majority.
- Meanwhile, Wissanu noted that there is no set deadline for the PM vote and it could take one day, two weeks or longer. In case of a deadlock, the Speaker may call for a vote for another candidate, but cannot personally nominate anyone.
- Election frontrunner MFP and runner-up Pheu Thai are yet to resolve their dispute over who should pick the next House Speaker, with local press reports suggesting that both have offered to trade one ministerial portfolio for the House Speaker position.
- There is a considerable amount of noise in press reports surrounding the House Speaker issue, which may reflect the nature of last-minute backdoor horse-trading involved in such processes.
- Persistent political uncertainty continues to weigh on the baht, with spot USD/THB last seen at 35.638, after rising as high as to 35.698, a new cyclical peak. By contrast, the SET Index got some reprieve today, snapping a seven-day losing streak.
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BONDS: Spanish inflation and Italian supply dominate the European morning session
May-30 09:33
- The main talking point of the morning session has been the soft Spanish inflation print with HICP missing expectations by 0.4ppt, and the national core print 0.3ppt lower than expected. For headline HICP, the 2.9%Y/Y print was the lowest since July 2021 while for national core CPI the 6.1%Y/Y print is 1.5ppt off of February's peak.
- EGBs led the rally with peripheral spreads widening and Bunds outperforming gilts and USTs. Over 60% of the CPI-induced rally had been retraced by the time of Italian auction at 10:00BST/5:00ET (with a larger-than-usual E11.0bln auction size) but since those strong results came in we have seen EGBs move higher once again, to start approaching their intraday highs.
- The main events on the calendar for the remainder of the day will be US Conference Board consumer confidence data as well as speeches from ECB's Villeroy and Fed's Barkin.TY1 futures are up 0-18+ today at 112-31+ with 10y UST yields down -8.3bp at 3.717% and 2y yields down -5.1bp at 4.512%.
- Bund futures are up 0.54 today at 134.76 with 10y Bund yields down -4.9bp at 2.383% and Schatz yields down -6.6bp at 2.805%.
- Gilt futures are up 0.62 today at 954.40 with 10y yields down -3.4bp at 4.296% and 2y yields down -0.3bp at 4.472%.
USD: Cable test session high
May-30 09:32
- Small offers in the USD, with Risk tilted to the upside.
- The Pound is testing session high against the EUR, JPY and the Dollar.
- Resistance is Cable comes at 1.2401/36 50- and 20-day EMA values.
- The Dollar is now more mixed against G10, GBP is the best performer, while the SEK is down 0.36%.
- The Yen dropped 35 pips after BoJ's Kanda refrained from commenting on the Yen levels, but USDJPY is still well within today's range.
OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - Key Resistance In S&P E-Minis Remains Exposed
May-30 09:28
- In the equity space, the S&P E-Minis trend conditions remain bullish. Last week’s bounce from 4114.00, May 24 low, means that support around the 50-day EMA remains intact. The average intersects at 4129.2 and a clear break of it is required to signal a reversal. The focus is on key resistance at 4244.00, the Feb 2 high. Clearance of this hurdle would resume the uptrend that started on Mar 13 and open 4288.00, the Aug 19 2022 high. Initial support lies at 4159.93, the 20-day EMA.
- EUROSTOXX 50 futures managed to find support last week at 4252.00, the May 25 low. This means that for now, support around the 50-day EMA, which intersects at 4271.40, remains intact. A clear break of the average would expose 4233.00, May 4 low and a key short-term support. Clearance of this level would strengthen bearish conditions. On the upside the bull trigger is at 4409.50, the Nov 18 2021 high (cont) and a major resistance.
