SONIA: Call fly buyer
Apr-26 12:09
SFIU4 95.15/95.30/95.50c fly, bought for 1.5 in 5k.
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FRANCE: Moody's See Larger Deficit Pointing to Higher Debt Levels Than Expected
Mar-27 11:59
- Moody's write that France's larger-than-expected 2023 deficit makes it unlikely that the government will succeed in reducing the deficit to 2.7% of GDP by 2027, and that the latest French numbers point to somewhat higher debt levels for longer than they had previously expected.
- Recall we wrote yesterday, the French ’23 deficit/GDP ratio printed at 5.5%. wider than the government’s 4.9% target and in line with pre-release reports/political commentary pointing to 5.4-5.6%.
- France’s sovereign credit rating is scheduled to be reviewed by Fitch and Moody’s (April 26th), S&P (May 31st) and Scope Ratings across the next two months.
- S&P’s update is likely to get the most interest as they currently have France at AA, with a negative outlook. Fitch has France one notch below at AA-; Outlook Stable.
- Our full piece on French deficit stats, ratings reviews and OAT markets here: https://marketnews.com/23-deficit-matches-leak-ind...
OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - WTI Trend Needle Continues To Point North
Mar-27 11:59
- On the commodity front, the trend condition in Gold remains bullish and the move higher on Mar 21, reinforces this condition. The initial rally delivered another all-time high and confirmed a resumption of the primary uptrend. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode condition, reflecting positive market sentiment. This signals scope for a climb towards $2230.1, a 1.50 projection of the Oct 6 - 27 - Nov 13 price swing. Key short-term trend support has been defined at $2146.2, the Mar 18 low.
- In the oil space, a bull theme in WTI futures remains intact and the latest pullback appears to be a correction. Recent gains resulted in a break of $79.87, the Mar 1 high. The move higher confirms a resumption of the uptrend that has been in place since mid-December last year. Sights are on $83.87 next, the Oct 20 ‘23 high. Support to watch is $79.83, the 20-day EMA.
US TSY FUTURES: BLOCK, Jun'24 5Y Sale
Mar-27 11:56
- -4,700 FVM4 107-00.5, sell through 107-00.75 post time bid at 0751:00ET. DV01 $199,300. Contract trades 107-00.75 last (+1.25)
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