UK: Burnham Permitted By NEC To Run In Makerfield By-Election

• Despite the relatively stable price action for oil on Wednesday and the subdued sentiment in currency markets, the favourable backdrop for equities continues to underpin solid gains for the Australian dollar. AUD is narrowing the gap to prior cycle highs against the dollar at 0.7187, but also performing well in a number of crosses ahead of Thursday’s labour market report.
• We flagged that EURAUD has fallen to a three-week low below 1.65, and this weakness has extended through the US session to touch session lows at 1.6474. In similar vein, GBPAUD is back below 1.90, having held 50-day EMA resistance well earlier in the week.
• Elsewhere, AUDCHF has risen 0.54% to place pressure on the 0.56 handle again. A close above this mark would be the first since March 2025, notable given we have the SNB minutes tomorrow where the discussion around FX intervention and the committee’s more forceful tone will be scrutinised. A break of the March highs at 113.96 for AUDJPY would place spot at the highest level since 1990.
• Consensus expects Australia’s unemployment rate to remain at 4.3% in March, and for the economy to have seen a net increase of 20k jobs. The RBA has described the labour market as a "little bit tight" recently, and March labour market data will provide an insight into the economy's excess capacity at the end of Q1. 

• RES 4: 112-16   61.8% retracement of the Mar 2 - 27 bear leg 
• RES 3: 112-07   High Mar 18
• RES 2: 111-31   50.0% retracement of the Mar 2 - 27 bear leg 
• RES 1: 111-18+/21   50-day EMA / High Apr 15
• PRICE:‌‌ 111-09+ @ 17:07 BST Apr 15
• SUP 1: 111-05+ Low Apr 14
• SUP 2: 110-16/109-24   Low Apr 2 / Low Mar 27 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 109-22+ 1.764 proj of the Mar 10 - 13 - 18 price swing
• SUP 4: 109-12   2.000 proj of the Mar 10 - 13 - 18 price swing

The latest recovery in Treasuries still appears corrective. Trend signals remain bearish, highlighted by moving average studies that are in a bear-mode position. Support to watch is 110-16, the Apr 2 low. A break would be bearish. The next important resistance is 111-18+, the 50-day EMA. Clearance of this average is required to signal scope for a stronger recovery that would open 111-31, a Fibonacci retracement.

• Date $MM Issuer (Priced *, Launch #)
• 04/15 $2B #AIIB 5Y WNG SOFR+32
• 04/15 $1B Omers WNG 5Y SOFR+51a
• 04/15 $825M Sotheby's 5NC2 8.25%a
• 04/15 $800M Herbalife 7NC3 7.75%a
• 04/15 $750M #Allianz PerpNC9 6.5%
• 04/15 $Benchmark CIMIC 10Y +220a
• 04/15 $Benchmark Morgan Stanley 4NC3 +75, 4NC3 SOFR, 6NC5 +85, 11NC10 +100
• 04/15 $Benchmark JP Morgan 4NC3 +60, 4NC3 SOFR, 6NC5 +70, 11NC10 +90
• 04/15 $Benchmark Republic of Turkiye 5Y 6.75%a
• 04/15 $Benchmark British Colombia 5Y SOFR+52a
• 04/15 $Benchmark Whitehaven 5.5Y +280a, 8Y +325a
• 04/15 $Benchmark EDF 10Y +105, 30Y +130, 40Y +145
• 04/15 $Benchmark SoftBank 3.5Y 7.87%a, 5.5Y 8.5%a, 10Y 8.87%. Dual currency issuance includes 4Y, 6Y and 8Y via Euro