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Jun-21 10:07
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STIR: BoE Pricing Flat To Start The New Week, BoE Speak & CPI Eyed Further Out
May-22 10:04
Nothing in the way of meaningful moves across the BoE-dated OIS strip, with the weekend news flow generally focused on U.S. debt ceiling matters and rhetoric out of the Fed & ECB, in addition to Sino-U.S. tensions. That leaves contracts across the strip within 1bp of Friday’s closing levels.
- BoE terminal policy rate pricing remains in the familiar 4.90-5.00% zone.
- Global cues will likely dominate on Monday. April’s inflation data presents the highlight of the week (due Wednesday), with BoE speak from Governor Bailey & Haskel also eyed over the coming days.
| BoE Meeting | SONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%) | Difference Vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp) |
| Jun-23 | 4.634 | +20.7 |
| Aug-23 | 4.799 | +37.1 |
| Sep-23 | 4.892 | +46.5 |
| Nov-23 | 4.901 | +47.4 |
| Dec-23 | 4.886 | +45.9 |
| Feb-24 | 4.834 | +40.7 |
| Mar-24 | 4.754 | +32.7 |
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg
OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - Gold Bear Cycle Remains In Play, Focus Is On Trendline Support
May-22 10:02
- On the commodity front, Gold remains in a bearish cycle and is trading closer to its recent lows. The yellow metal last week cleared support at $1976.3, the 50-day EMA and $1969.3, the Apr 19 low. A clear break of this support zone highlights a stronger bearish threat and opens $1924.7, a trendline support drawn from the Nov 3 2022. Key resistance and the bull trigger is at $2063.0, the May 4 high. Initial resistance is at $1999.0, the May 12 high.
- In the oil space, a short-term bearish threat in WTI futures remains present and initial resistance at $73.81, the May 10 high, is intact. A resumption of weakness and a break of $69.39, the May 15 low, would strengthen near-term bearish conditions. The recent print below $64.67, the Mar 20 low and a key support, is a key bearish development. A clear break of it would resume the broader downtrend.
GREECE: Mitsotakis To Hand Back Mandate, New Election Likely In June
May-22 09:56
Greek Prime Minister has stated that he will hand back the mandate to form a gov't to President Katerina Sakellaropoulou, saying that "I think there is no condition to form a coalition government," and that he hopes snap elections can take place as soon as 25 June.
- Mitsotakis' centre-right New Democracy strongly outperformed pre-election opinion polling, securing over 40% of the vote and falling just short of an overall majority with an estimated 146 seats in the 300-member parliament.
- This election was run under a simple proportional system, meaning that it was almost impossible for any single party to emerge with a majority. However, the next election will run on a 'reinforced proportional' system in which the largest party wins bonus seats to boost its chances of holding a majority.
- If ND can match their performance in the 21 May vote in a snap election it will ensure Mitsotakis's party a comfortable majority in Parliament.
- For more information on the electoral system and post-election scenarios see our Political Risk team's Election Briefing.
