GOLD TECHS: Bulls Remain In The Driver’s Seat
- RES 4: $3106.8 - 2.764 proj of the Nov 14 - Dec 12 - 19 price swing
- RES 3: $3100.0 - Round number resistance
- RES 2: $3079.2 - 2.618 proj of the Nov 14 - Dec 12 - 19 price swing
- RES 1: $3057.5 - High Mar 20
- PRICE: $3030.3 @ 07:22 GMT Mar 21
- SUP 1: $2999.5 - Low Mar 18
- SUP 2: $2953.5/2873.4 - 20-day EMA / 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: $2832.7 - Low Feb 28 and key support
- SUP 4: $2758.3 - Low Jan 30
A clear uptrend in Gold is intact and this week’s resumption of the bull cycle reinforces current conditions. The yellow metal is holding on to the bulk of its recent gains. Thursday’s fresh trend high reinforces the bull theme and sights are on $3079.2 next, a Fibonacci projection. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend and positive market sentiment. Support is at $2953.5, the 20-day EMA.
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BOBL TECHS: (H5) Approaching Trendline Support
- RES 4: 118.258 61.8% retracement of the Dec 2 - Jan 14 bear leg
- RES 3: 117.980 High Feb 3 / 5 and a reversal trigger
- RES 2: 117.600 High Feb 13 and a key short-term resistance
- RES 1: 117.418 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 117.130 @ 07:21 GMT Feb 19
- SUP 1: 117.048 Trendline drawn from Jan 15 low
- SUP 2: 116.700 Low Jan 30
- SUP 3: 116.550 Low Jan 24
- SUP 4: 116.280 Low Jan 14 / 15 and key support
Bobl futures remain in a short-term corrective cycle and the contract remains close to recent lows. Price has recently traded through support at the 20-day EMA - at 117.430. The extension lower has exposed a trendline support drawn from the Jan 15 low, at 117.048. Clearance of the trendline would strengthen a bearish threat and open 116.700, the Jan 30 low. Initial firm resistance to watch is 117.600, the Feb 13 high.
BUND TECHS: (H5) Has Cleared Trendline Support
- RES 4: 134.54 61.8% retracement of the Dec 2 - Jan 14 bear leg
- RES 3: 133.71 High Feb 5 and a reversal trigger
- RES 2: 132.97 High Feb 13 and a key near-term resistance
- RES 1: 132.59 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 131.82 @ 07:20 GMT Feb 19
- SUP 1: 131.59 61.8% retracement of the Jan 14 - Feb 5 bull leg
- SUP 2: 131.00 Low Jan 24 and a key short-term support
- SUP 3: 130.28 Low Jan 15 and the bear trigger
- SUP 4: 130.11 1.236 proj of the Oct 1 - Nov 6 - Dec 2 ‘24 price swing
Bund futures are trading lower again, as the contract extends the reversal that started Feb 5. Price is through an important short-term support at 132.12, a trendline drawn from the Jan 15 low. The breach strengthens a bearish theme and signals scope for an extension towards 131.59 next, a Fibonacci retracement. Below 131.59, lies 131.00, the Jan 25 low and a key support. Initial firm resistance to watch is 132.97, the Feb 13 high.
SWEDEN: Long-term Inflation Expectations At Highest Since August 2023
Swedish money market participant inflation expectations rose a tenth across 1-, 2- and 5-year horizons in February. 5-year ahead CPIF expectations were 2.2% (vs 2.1% prior). Although still reasonably close to the 2% target, this was the highest reading since August 2023. As such, that data will be another modestly hawkish input into the Riksbank’s March MPR rate path, alongside the January inflation data.
- 1- and 2-year ahead expectations were 1.9% and 2.0% respectively. The uptick in expectations may be a reaction to start-of-year price resets across industries, which also pushed up the spot January inflation readings.
- GDP growth expectations were revised higher: 1-year ahead to 2.2% (vs 2.1% prior), 2-year ahead to 2.3% (vs 2.1% prior) and 5-year ahead to 2.0% (vs 1.9% prior).
