GOLD TECHS: Bullish Theme
- RES 4: $2282.6 - 1.764 proj of the Oct 6 - 27 - Nov 13 price swing
- RES 3: $2253.6 - 1.618 proj of the Oct 6 - 27 - Nov 13 price swing
- RES 2: $2230.1 - 1.50 proj of the Oct 6 - 27 - Nov 13 price swing
- RES 1: $2220.9 - High Mar 21
- PRICE: $2179.3 @ 07:16 GMT Mar 27
- SUP 1: $2146.2 - Low Mar 18 and key short-term support
- SUP 2: $2142.9 - 20-day EMA
- SUP 3: $2094.4 - 50-day EMA
- SUP 4: $2088.5 - High Dec 28
The trend condition in Gold remains bullish and the move higher on Mar 21, reinforces this condition. The initial rally delivered another all-time high and confirmed a resumption of the primary uptrend. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode condition, reflecting positive market sentiment. This signals scope for a climb towards $2230.1, a Fibonacci projection. Key short-term trend support has been defined at $2146.2, the Mar 18 low.
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NORWAY: Trend Unemployment Rate Continues To Drift Higher
The Norwegian LFS trend unemployment rate rose to 3.9% (vs an upwardly revised 3.8% prior). This is not the main unemployment rate tracked and forecasted by the Norges Bank (they look more closely at the unemployment claims rate).
- Nonetheless, the LFS rate has drifted higher since August '23 (from 3.6% to 3.9% now), while the unemployment claims rate has been steady at 1.9%.
- The Norges Bank will thus still be watchful of trends in the LFS rate, in case these dynamics begin to show themselves in the claims data.
- In her annual address, Governor Wolden Bache noted that Norway should be prepared for "somewhat higher unemployment", even with rates unlikely to be raised above their current 4.5% level.
- Preliminary data on employment and earnings from today's survey shows the number of employees rising 1.0% M/M (SA), number of jobs rising 1.2% M/M (SA) and average renumeration in NOK rising 1.6% M/M.
BUNDS: A very busy week ahead
- A very busy week ahead, with European CPIs, US PCE, Speakers, Rolling Bond positions for UK and US Govies, and Month End Extensions.
- Core Govies are underpinned at the start of the week, after testing multi Months highs in Yield terms last week.
- There isn't much in terms of resistance at current levels, with the next upside area of interest around the 134.00 figure.
- Small support comes at 133.25, followed by the 132.75 area.
- There's no Tier 1 data today, Spanish PPI is unlikely to move the needle, with the main focus on CPIs this week for Europe. US New Home sales and Dallas Fed, are also unlikely to move markets.
- Main focus out of the US, will be the heavy supply.
- SUPPLY: US sells $63bn of 2yr Notes and $64bn of 5yr Notes.
- SPEAKERS: ECB Lagarde, Vujcic, Stournaras, BoE Breeden, Pill.
RATINGS: Friday’s Updates
Sovereign credit rating reviews of note from after hours on Friday included:
- Fitch affirmed Austria at AA+; Outlook Stable
- Fitch affirmed the Czech Republic at AA-; Outlook revised to Stable from Negative
- Moody's affirmed Sweden at Aaa; Outlook Stable
