USDCAD TECHS: Bullish Theme
- RES 4: 1.3695 High Mar 28
- RES 3: 1.3668 High Apr 28 and key resistance
- RES 2: 1.3640 High May 3
- RES 1: 1.3599 High May 24
- PRICE: 1.3598 @ 16:20 BST May 24
- SUP 1: 1.3404 Low May 16
- SUP 2: 1.3363/15 Low May 11 / 8
- SUP 3: 1.3302 Low Apr 14 and a key near-term support
- SUP 4: 1.3275 Low Feb 14
USDCAD is in consolidation mode but is holding on to the bulk of its recent gains. The recovery from the May 8 low has eased a recent bearish threat and the pair has traded through the 50-day EMA, currently at 1.3512. A clear breach of this average would strengthen the case for bulls and signal scope for a climb towards resistance at 1.3668, the Apr 28 high. Key support lies at 1.3302, the Apr 14 low. A break would reinstate a bearish theme.
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USDCAD TECHS: Trading Above The 50-Day EMA
- RES 4: .36448 61.8% retracement of the Mar 10 - Apr 14 bear leg
- RES 3: 1.3617 High Mar 29
- RES 2: 1.3582 50.0% retracement of the Mar 10 - Apr 14 bear leg
- RES 1: 1.3573 1.0% 10-dma envelope
- PRICE: 1.3566 @ 16:26 BST Apr 24
- SUP 1: 1.3473 Low Apr 21
- SUP 2: 1.3385/3302 Low Apr 19 / 14 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: 1.3275 Low Feb 14
- SUP 4: 1.3262 Low Feb 2 and a key support
USDCAD maintains a firmer tone. The pair has topped 1.3526 resistance - the 50-day EMA. The clear break of this hurdle strengthens the current bull cycle and signals scope for a climb towards 1.3573, the 1.0% 10-dma envelope. For bears, a failure to hold above the 50-day EMA would signal the end of the correction and attention would turn to the key support at 1.3302, the Apr 14 low.
MNI: TREASURY GENERAL ACCOUNT $281B APRIL 21 VS $280B PREV DAY
- MNI: TREASURY GENERAL ACCOUNT $281B APRIL 21 VS $280B PREV DAY
US TSYS: Holding Near Early Friday Highs
- Front month Treasury futures extended early gains after April Dallas Fed manufacturing index comes out much weaker than expected -23.4 vs. -12.0 est. June 10Y futures marking a session high of 114-31 (+16), a tick away from Friday's early session high of 114-15.
- Despite the rebound today, 10Y futures remain vulnerable and recent activity appears to be a bear flag - a bearish continuation pattern that reinforces the current downtrend. The contract has recently traded through the 20- and 50-day EMAs and pierced 114-00. The move lower opens 113-23, a Fibonacci retracement.
- On the upside, initial firm resistance is at 115-00, Friday’s high. A break and close above this level would ease the current bearish threat.
- Otherwise, Monday was a quiet start to the week with the Federal Reserve in policy blackout through May 4.
- Focus on Tuesday's Data Calendar with House Price Index, New Home Sales, Consumer Confidence and US Tsy $42B 2Y Note auction (91282CGX3) in the afternoon.
