USDCAD TECHS: Bullish Theme
- RES 4: 1.4200 Round number resistance
- RES 3: 1.4167 50.0% retracement of the Feb 3 - Jun 16 bear leg
- RES 2: 1.4111 High Apr 10
- RES 1: 1.4080 Intraday high
- PRICE: 1.4038 @ 16:00 BST Oct 15
- SUP 1: 1.3939/3870 20- and 50-day EMA values
- SUP 2: 1.3802 Bull channel base drawn from the Jul 23 low
- SUP 3: 1.3727 Low Aug 29 and a bear trigger
- SUP 4: 1.3689 Low Jul 28
A bull cycle in USDCAD remains intact and this week’s gains reinforce current conditions. Last Thursday’s rally confirmed a recent bull flag on the daily chart and a resumption of the current uptrend. MA studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Sights are on 1.4111, the Apr 10 high, and further out scope is seen for an extension towards 1.4167, a Fibonacci retracement. First key support is 1.3870, 50-day EMA.
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AUDUSD TECHS: Northbound
- RES 4: 0.6763 1.382 proj of the Jun 23 - Jul 24 - Aug 21 price swing
- RES 3: 0.6726 1.236 proj of the Jun 23 - Jul 24 - Aug 21 price swing
- RES 2: 0.6700 Round number resistance
- RES 1: 0.6688 High Nov 7 ‘24
- PRICE: 0.6672 @ 20:58 BST Sep 15
- SUP 1: 0.6558/6526 20- and 50-day EMA values
- SUP 2: 0.6463/6415 Low Aug 27 / Low Aug 21 / 22 and a bear trigger
- SUP 3: 0.6373 Low Jun 23
- SUP 4: 0.6354 38.2% retracement of the Apr 9 - Jul 24 upleg
AUDUSD bulls remain in the driver’s seat. The latest rally plus the breach of 0.6625, the Jul 24 high and bull trigger, confirm a resumption of the uptrend. The climb opens 0.6677, a Fibonacci projection. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position highlighting a dominant uptrend. Key support to watch is 0.6415, the Aug 21 / 22 low. Initial firm support to monitor lies at 0.6526, the 50-day EMA.
AUSSIE 10-YEAR TECHS: (Z5) Trading Closer To Its Recent Highs
- RES 3: 95.995 - 1.618 proj of the Sep 3 - 9 - 10 price swing
- RES 2: 95.865 - 1.000 proj of the Sep 3 - 9 - 10 price swing
- RES 1: 95.780 - High Sep 12
- PRICE: 95.735 @ 20:26 BST Sep 15
- SUP 1: 95.510 - Low Sep 3
- SUP 2: 95.415/95.300 - Low May 15 / Low Jan 14
- SUP 3: 95.275 - Low Nov 14 (cont) and a key support
Aussie 10-yr futures are trading closer to their recent highs and a short-term bull cycle remains in play. Short-term resistance to watch is last week’s 95.780 high on Sep 12. A break of this level would signal scope for a continuation higher and pave the way for a climb towards 95.865, a Fibonacci projection. Key short-term support has been defined at 95.510, the Sep 3 low.
US OUTLOOK/OPINION: Macro Since Last FOMC - Labor: Openings Ease Again [5/5]
- Slower moving indicators also still carry weight as the FOMC assesses broader labor market balance.
- The JOLTS report for July was softer than expected, primarily on the openings front as the ratio of vacancies to unemployed fell to a new recent low.
- Powell at Jackson Hole had pointed to this metric in the category of little changed to only modestly softer over the past year, leaving sensitivity to any subsequent declines here.
- Specifically, the ratio of openings to unemployed fell from 1.05 to 0.99. Whist only marginal at this stage, that’s the first time there have been fewer openings than unemployed since Apr 2021 or, prior to the pandemic, early 2018.
- The quit rate meanwhile was unchanged at 2.01%, continuing to stabilize at low levels having averaged 2.0% since Aug 2024, and actually a little above some 1.9% readings in 2H24 rather than pushing lower still.
