USDCAD TECHS: Bullish Theme

• RES 4: 0.6763 1.382 proj of the Jun 23 - Jul 24 - Aug 21 price swing
• RES 3: 0.6726 1.236 proj of the Jun 23 - Jul 24 - Aug 21 price swing
• RES 2: 0.6700 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 0.6688 High Nov 7 ‘24
• PRICE: 0.6672 @ 20:58 BST Sep 15
• SUP 1: 0.6558/6526 20- and 50-day EMA values
• SUP 2: 0.6463/6415 Low Aug 27 / Low Aug 21 / 22 and a bear trigger
• SUP 3: 0.6373 Low Jun 23 
• SUP 4: 0.6354 38.2% retracement of the Apr 9 - Jul 24 upleg

AUDUSD bulls remain in the driver’s seat. The latest rally plus the breach of 0.6625, the Jul 24 high and bull trigger, confirm a resumption of the uptrend. The climb opens 0.6677, a Fibonacci projection. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position highlighting a dominant uptrend. Key support to watch is 0.6415, the Aug 21 / 22 low. Initial firm support to monitor lies at 0.6526, the 50-day EMA.

• RES 3: 95.995 - 1.618 proj of the Sep 3 - 9 - 10 price swing
• RES 2: 95.865 - 1.000 proj of the Sep 3 - 9 - 10 price swing
• RES 1: 95.780 - High Sep 12
• PRICE: 95.735 @ 20:26 BST Sep 15
• SUP 1: 95.510 - Low Sep 3  
• SUP 2: 95.415/95.300 - Low May 15 / Low Jan 14 
• SUP 3: 95.275 - Low Nov 14  (cont) and a key support

Aussie 10-yr futures are trading closer to their recent highs and a short-term bull cycle remains in play. Short-term resistance to watch is last week’s 95.780 high on Sep 12. A break of this level would signal scope for a continuation higher and pave the way for a climb towards 95.865, a Fibonacci projection. Key short-term support has been defined at 95.510, the Sep 3 low.

• Slower moving indicators also still carry weight as the FOMC assesses broader labor market balance.
• The JOLTS report for July was softer than expected, primarily on the openings front as the ratio of vacancies to unemployed fell to a new recent low.
• Powell at Jackson Hole had pointed to this metric in the category of little changed to only modestly softer over the past year, leaving sensitivity to any subsequent declines here.
• Specifically, the ratio of openings to unemployed fell from 1.05 to 0.99. Whist only marginal at this stage, that’s the first time there have been fewer openings than unemployed since Apr 2021 or, prior to the pandemic, early 2018.
• The quit rate meanwhile was unchanged at 2.01%, continuing to stabilize at low levels having averaged 2.0% since Aug 2024, and actually a little above some 1.9% readings in 2H24 rather than pushing lower still.