MNI US Employment Report, Oct 2025: Labor Market Stays Soft

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Executive Summary

• With the BLS’s nonfarm payrolls report for September delayed indefinitely, MNI has compiled a “Shadow” Employment Report that assesses latest developments via the data we do have for the month.
• Alternative private sector indicators of jobs growth paint a mixed picture on the extent of the latest additional softening beyond that seen in latest BLS payrolls data to August.
• With ratios keenly watched by FOMC members, various unemployment rate metrics point to further increases including to new recent highs in the Chicago Fed’s final indicators report.
• State-level jobless claims data look contained though, with the labor market still best characterized as in a low fire, low hire state.