EURGBP TECHS: Bullish Outlook

Sep-15 05:24

RES 4: 0.8852 50.0% retracement of the 2020 - 2022 downleg
RES 3: 0.8840 High Feb 2
RES 2: 0.8811 1.236 proj of the Apr 14 - Jun 15 - Aug 2 price swing
RES 1: 0.8721/22 High Jun 15 / High Sep 12
PRICE: 0.8653 @ 06:20 BST Sep 15
SUP 1: 0.8593 20-day EMA
SUP 2: 0.8567 Low Sep 6 and a key short-term support
SUP 3: 0.8536 50-day EMA
SUP 4: 0.8471 Low Aug 29

The recent pullback in EURGBP is considered corrective. The cross maintains a bullish tone and attention is on key resistance at 0.8721, the Jun 15 high and an important bull trigger. This level was pierced Monday. Clearance of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the bull cycle that started early March and open 0.8811, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, initial firm support is unchanged at 0.8567, the Sep 6 low.

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UK: Timeline of key events (Times BST)

Aug-16 05:23

Date	Time	Period	Event
16-Aug	0700	Jun	Labour Market Survey / GDP estimate
17-Aug	0700	Jul	Producer Prices / Consumer Inflation Report
17-Aug	0930	Jul	ONS House Price Index
19-Aug	0001	Aug	Gfk Monthly Consumer Confidence
19-Aug	0700	Jul	Retail Sales / Public Sector Finances
23-Aug	0930	Aug	IHS Markit Mfg / Services / Composite PMI (flash)
23-Aug	1100	Aug	CBI Industrial Trends
25-Aug	1100	Aug	CBI Distributive Trades
31-Aug	0001	Aug	BRC Monthly Shop Price Index
01-Sep	0930	Aug	IHS Markit/CIPS Manufacturing PMI (f)
06-Sep	0001	Aug	BRC-KPMG Shop Sales Monitor
06-Sep	0930	Aug	IHS Markit/CIPS Construction PMI
13-Sep	0700	Jul	Labour Market Survey
14-Sep	0700	Aug	Producer Prices / Consumer Inflation Report

GBPUSD TECHS: Approaching First Support

Aug-16 05:21

RES 4: 1.2518 High Jun 6
RES 3: 1.2406 High Jun 16 and a key resistance
RES 2: 1.2332 High Jun 27
RES 1: 1.2293 High Aug 01
PRICE: 1.2046 @ 06:19 BST Aug 16
SUP 1: 1.2004 Low Aug 5
SUP 2: 1.1961 Low Jul 25
SUP 3: 1.1890/1760 Low Jul 21 / Low Jul 14 and the bear trigger
SUP 4: 1.1673 1.00 proj of the May 27 - Jun 14 - 16 price swing

GBPUSD traded lower again Monday. Recent price action highlights two important short-term directional triggers; resistance at 1.2293, the Aug 1 high and support at 1.2004, the Aug 5 low. The outlook is bullish but a break of 1.2293 is required to signal a resumption of the bull cycle and open 1.2406, the Jun 16 high. For bears, clearance of support at 1.2004 would instead expose 1.1890, the Jul 21 low.

EUROZONE: Timeline of key events (Times BST)

Aug-16 05:18

Date	Time	Country	Event
16-Aug	1000	DE	ZEW Current Conditions / Expectations Index
16-Aug	1000	EU	Trade Balance
17-Aug	1000	EU	Employment / GDP (p)
18-Aug	1000	EU	Construction Production / HICP (f)
18-Aug	1815	EU	ECB Schnabel Presentation at IHK Reception
19-Aug	0700	DE	PPI
19-Aug	0900	EU	EZ Current Account
23-Aug	0815	FR	IHS Markit Services / Manufacturing PMI (p)
23-Aug	0830	DE	IHS Markit Services / Manufacturing PMI (p)
23-Aug	0900	EU	IHS Markit Services / Manufacturing PMI (p)
23-Aug	1200	EU	ECB Panetta at ECB Policy Panel at EEA Annual Congress
23-Aug	1500	EU	Consumer Confidence Indicator (p)

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