EURUSD TECHS: Bullish Outlook

• RES 4: 120.20 High Dec 12 ‘24 (cont)           
• RES 3: 120.000 Psychological round number          
• RES 2: 119.960 High Apr 7 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 119.780 High Apr 22                                     
• PRICE: 119.400 @ 05:45 BST Apr 30  
• SUP 1: 119.180 Low Apr 23       
• SUP 2: 118.996 20-day EMA   
• SUP 3: 118.060 Low Apr 10   
• SUP 4: 117.680 Low Apr 9 and a key support      

Bobl futures are trading closer to their recent highs and a bull cycle remains in play. The steep sell-off between Apr 7 - 9 is considered corrective. The early April rally resulted in a break of key resistance at 119.040, the Feb 28 high, strengthening bullish conditions. The focus is on the 120.000 handle next. Firm support lies at 117.680, the Apr 9 low. The 20-day EMA, an important short-term support, is at 118.996.

ACGBs (YM flat & XM +2.0) slightly mixed on the day but 1-4bps cheaper after today’s Q1 CPI data.

• Q1 headline and underlying inflation printed 0.1pp higher than expected but the trimmed mean at 2.9% y/y is below the top of the RBA’s 2-3% target band for the first time since Q4 2021.
• Cash US tsys are slightly mixed in today's Asia-Pac session.
• Cash ACGBs are flat to 2bps richer on the day, with the AU-US 10-year yield differential at flat.
• Swap rates are flat to 4bps lower, with the curve flatter.
• The bills strip has twist-flattened, with pricing -5 to +3.
• The data is close to the RBA’s expectations and at this stage consistent with inflation sustainably remaining within the band. Thus, another 25bp rate cut to 3.85% is likely on May 20, assuming that easing is consistent with the RBA’s updated outlook.
• RBA-dated OIS pricing is 2-5bps firmer across meetings after today’s data. A 50bp rate cut in May is given a 3% probability, with a cumulative 112bps of easing priced by year-end.
• Tomorrow, the local calendar will see CoreLogic Home Values, Trade Balance and Q1 Terms of Trade data.
• The AOFM plans to sell A$1200mn of the 2.75% 21 June 2035 bond on Friday.

• RES 4: 1.1696 1.618 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - 27 price swing 
• RES 3: 1.1625 1.500 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - 27 price swing
• RES 2: 1.1608 High Nov 9 2021
• RES 1: 1.1440/1573 High Apr 23 / 21 and the bull trigger  
• PRICE: 1.1373 @ 06:01 BST Apr 30
• SUP 1: 1.1308 Low Apr 23
• SUP 2: 1.1251 20-day EMA and a key support    
• SUP 3: 1.1144/1002 High Apr 3 / 50-day EMA and a pivot level     
• SUP 4: 1.0805 Low Apr 3  

The recent pullback in EURUSD is considered corrective and the trend structure is unchanged, it remains bullish. MA studies are in a bull-mode position signalling a dominant uptrend, and the latest move down is allowing an overbought condition to unwind. A resumption of gains would open 1.1608 next, the Nov 9 2021 high. Key support is at the 20-day EMA, at 1.1251. A break of this average would signal scope for a deeper corrective pullback.