EURUSD TECHS: Bullish Engulfing Candle

JGB futures are stronger, +26 compared to settlement levels, but sitting mid-range, after significant early gains were pared on reports Iran has reached out to resume talks.

• WSJ - Iranian security chief Ali Larijani has made a fresh push to resume nuclear talks with Washington, Arab and U.S. officials said, hours after the negotiations were halted by U.S.-Israeli strikes.
• US tsys are 2-4bps cheaper in today's Asia-Pac session. It's a busy week ahead for US data with ISM manufacturing and services reports for February and retail sales for January building up to Friday's nonfarm payrolls report for February.
• MNI: BOJ's Himino Sees Limited Rate Hike Impact, Further Rises. Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino said Monday that the impact of past rate hikes on the economy remains limited and financial conditions are still accommodative, signalling the prospect of further increases without specifying their timing.
• Cash JGBs are holding richer across benchmarks but well off bests, with yields 2-4bps lower.
• Swap rates are 1-2bps lower.
• Tomorrow, the local calendar will see Labour Market, Corporate Sales and Profits, and Monetary Base data alongside 10-year supply. BOJ Governor Ueda will also speak at event in Tokyo.

Source: Bloomberg Finance LP

ACGBs (YM +2.5 & XM +1.5) are stronger but well off session bests after paring significant early gains on reports Iran has reached out to resume talks. 

• WSJ - Iranian security chief Ali Larijani has made a fresh push to resume nuclear talks with Washington, Arab and U.S. officials said, hours after the negotiations were halted by U.S.-Israeli strikes.
• Some investors are pointing to an interview President Trump gave to the New York Times: TRUMP OPEN TO DROP IRAN SANCTIONS IF NEW LEADER PRAGMATIC: NYT
• US tsys are 2-4bps cheaper in today's Asia-Pac session.
• Cash ACGBs are 1-3bps richer with the AU-US 10-year yield differential at +67bps.
• The bills strip is +1 to +2 across contracts.
• RBA-dated OIS pricing shows tightening across all meetings, with the probability of a 25bp hike rising from 8% for March to 91% by June and 143% by December 2026.  
• Tomorrow, the local calendar will see Jan Building Approvals, and Q4 Current Account Balance and Net Exports of GDP. Governor Bullock also addresses the AFR Business Summit.
• This week, the AOFM plans to sell A$300mn of the 3.00% 21 March 2047 bond on Tuesday, A$900mn of the 4.75% 21 October 2037 bond on Wednesday and A$800mn of the 1.50% 21 June 2031 bond on Friday.

Bloomberg Finance LP

NZGBs closed little changed after paring significant early gains after reports Iran has reached out to resume talks. The market was 5bps richer early in the session. 

• WSJ - Iranian security chief Ali Larijani has made a fresh push to resume nuclear talks with Washington, Arab and U.S. officials said, hours after the negotiations were halted by U.S.-Israeli strikes.
• US tsys are 2-4bps cheaper in today’s Asia-Pac session, reversing the lion’s share of Friday’s gains.
• NZ-US 10-year yield differential is 4bps wider since Friday’s close.
• Swap rates closed 1-3bps higher.
• RBNZ-dated OIS pricing closed little changed across meetings. No tightening is priced for April, while December 2026 assigns 28bps.
• Tomorrow, the local calendar will see Building Permits data, ahead of Terms of Trade Index and ANZ Commodity Price on Wednesday.
• On Thursday, the NZ Treasury plans to sell NZ$250mn of the 1.50% May-31 bond and NZ$200mn of the 4.5% May-35 bond.

Bloomberg Finance LP