USDJPY TECHS: Bull Trend Extends
- RES 4: 120.00 Psychological round number
- RES 3: 119.38 3.382 proj of the Feb 24 - Mar 3 - 4 price swing
- RES 2: 119.18 3.236 proj of the Feb 24 - Mar 3 - 4 price swing
- RES 1: 119.12 High Mar 16
- PRICE: 118.44 @ 17:32 GMT Mar 17
- SUP 1: 117.28/116.35 Low Mar 14 / High Jan 4
- SUP 2: 116.29 20-day EMA
- SUP 3: 115.34 50-day EMA
- SUP 4: 115.48 Low Mar 4
USDJPY firmed further Wednesday. The pair has cleared the key resistance at 118.60/66, the Jan 3 ‘17 and Dec 15 ‘16 highs. This strengthens bullish conditions and reinforces the recent bullish break of resistance 116.34/35, the Feb 10 / Jan 4 highs, that confirmed a resumption of the primary uptrend. Market focus turns to 119.18 next - the 3.236 projection of the Feb 24 - Mar 3 - 4 price swing. Initial support is seen at 117.28, Monday’s low.
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USDJPY TECHS: Key S/T Resistance Remains Exposed
- RES 4: 118.07 2.236 proj of Apr 23 - Jul 2 - Aug 4 2021 price swing
- RES 3: 117.08 2.00 proj of Apr 23 - Jul 2 - Aug 4 2021 price swing
- RES 2: 116.35 High Jan 4 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: 116.34 High Feb 10
- PRICE: 115.70 @ 16:46 GMT Feb 15
- SUP 1: 115.01 Low Feb 14
- SUP 2: 114.65 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 114.16 Low Feb 02
- SUP 4: 113.47 Low Jan 24 and key support
USDJPY remains below last week’s highs. The outlook is bullish following recent gains through resistance at 115.67/68, 76.4% of the Jan 4 - 24 downleg and the Jan 28 high. Attention is on key resistance at 116.35, Jan 4 high and the bull trigger. A clear break of this hurdle would resume the uptrend and pave the way for a climb towards 117.08, a projection of the Apr 23 - Jul 2 - Aug 4 price swing. Initial support is seen at 115.01.
PIPELINE: $6B Bristol-Myers 4Pt Jumbo Launched
Bristol Myers 4pt jumbo the lion's share of $11B total high grade debt issued Tue:
- Date $MM Issuer (Priced *, Launch #)
- 02/15 $6B #Bristol-Myers $1.75B 10Y +95, $1.25B 20Y +115, $2B 30Y +135, $1B 40Y +155
- 02/15 $1.5B #Enbridge $400M 2Y +63, $600M 2Y FRN/SOFR+63, $500M 3Y +73
- 02/15 $1B #Norfolk Southern $600M 10Y +95, $400M 31Y +135
- 02/15 $1B FactSet WNG $500M 5Y +100, $500M 10Y +145
- 02/15 $600M #Kimco 10Y +125
- 02/15 $500M #Israel Electric Corp WNG 10Y +175
- 02/15 $400M #Kemper 10Y +180
STIR FUTURES: Canada BAX Futures Bely Eurodollars
- In contrast to Eurodollars, BAX futures have moved lower today across whites and reds, with a corresponding increase in implied yields by as much as 3.5bps currently to near new highs.
- This continues to see front-loaded hikes priced through this year, with a 94% probability of a cumulative 50bp increase in the 3M CDOR through Q2 and 68% of a cumulative 50bp through Q3.
- With large hikes already priced, it remains to be seen whether tomorrow’s CPI print for Jan can add to this.
