GBPUSD TECHS: Bull Phase Still In Play

Treasury futures holding firm (TYM6 +6.5 at 112-03) after $13B 20Y Bond auction re-open (912810UT3) stops through: drawing a high yield of 4.817% vs 4.825% WI at the cutoff; 2.76x bid-to-cover vs. 2.36x prior (lowest since Nov 2024).

• Peripheral stats: indirect take-up rebounds to 69.18% vs. 55.17% prior (lowest since Feb 2021); direct bidder take-up recedes to 21.58% from 27.24% prior; primary dealer take-up falls back to 9.24% vs. 17.59% prior.
• The next 20Y auction (new) is scheduled for April 22, 2026.

• US TSY 19Y-11M BOND AUCTION: HIGH YLD 4.817%; ALLOT 33.71%
• US TSY 19Y-11M BOND AUCTION: DEALERS TAKE 9.24% OF COMPETITIVES
• US TSY 19Y-11M BOND AUCTION: DIRECTS TAKE 21.58% OF COMPETITIVES
• US TSY 19Y-11M BOND AUCTION: INDIRECTS TAKE 69.18% OF COMPETITIVES
• US TSY 19Y-11M BOND AUCTION: BID/COV 2.76

Senior members of the European Parliament's International Trade Committee agreed earlier to hold a full committee vote Thursday, 19 March on the ratification of a trade deal agreed between the EU and the US last August at President Donald Trump's Turnberry golf course in Scotland. The rubber-stamping of the deal has been held up on several occasions recently. Trump's aggressive demands in January for Denmark to cede the sovereignty of Greenland, his threats of cutting off trade with Spain in light of their insufficient defence spending commitments, and the US Supreme Courts decision to strike down 'reciprocal' tariffs followed by Trump's imposition of a 10% global tariff all caused confusion as to the legal aspects of the deal or consternation with the White House's undiplomatic rhetoric. 

• Chair of the committee and lead MEP on the US-EU file, German Social Democrat Bernd Lange, confirmed that after "quite smooth" talks today, the vote would go ahead. The centre-left Socialists and Democrats, centrist Renew Europe, and environmenalist/regionalist Greens/EFA groups had all demanded greater safeguards be introduced to the deal in case the US reneges on its commitments. With these three groups on board, as well as the centre-right European People's Party, the 19 March vote should pass. Prior to the vote, on 18 March, the committee will set a date for the plenary session vote on the deal. Late March/early April is mooted as a likely timeframe.
• Even after the plenary vote among all MEPs, should the deal be approved, the Parliament would then enter 'trilogue' talks with the European Council (i.e. member state gov'ts) and Commission on agreeing to a final compromise before implementation.