USDCAD TECHS: Bull Flag Formation

Friday's U.S. rates/bond options flow included:

• FVN6 107.00/107.50 1x2 call spread paper paid 0-05 on 13K
• TYN6 109.50 puts 2.5K given at 0-21 and 2.5k given at 0-20
• SFRU6 96.75/96.50/96.37 broken p fly 1x3x2, traded half in 1.65k.
• SFRU6 96.25^ vs 96.50c, bought the straddle for 14.5 in 1k.
• SFRZ6 96.00/96.18^^, traded 32 in 1.5k.
• SFRZ6 96.25/96.62cs, traded 7.75 in 2k
• SFRZ6 96.25/96.12/95.62p ladder, traded for 0.25 in 4k
• SFRZ6 96.25/97.25/98.00c ladder, bought for 8.5 in 2k
• SFRZ6 96.25/96.00ps, bought for 11.75 in 7.5k.
• 2QQ6 96.00/96.25/96.50c ladder, bought for 7.5 in 3k.
• SFRM7 97.25/98.00cs, traded flat in 10k (on block).
• SFRU6 96.18/96.12/96.06/95.93 put condor bought for 0.5 in 2k

• RES 4: 187.95 High Apr 17 and the bull trigger   
• RES 3: 187.56 High Apr 30
• RES 2: 186.56 76.4% retracement of the Apr 17 - May 6 bear leg  
• RES 1: 186.21 High Jun 5
• PRICE: 185.49 @ 16:36 BST Jun 12
• SUP 1: 184.01 Low Jun 8  
• SUP 2: 183.50 Low May 07
• SUP 3: 182.05 Low May 06 and a bear trigger
• SUP 4: 181.87 Low Mar 16 

EURJPY remains above Monday’s low. The trend condition is bullish and the latest pullback appears corrective. Note too that MA studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. A continuation higher would open 186.56, a Fibonacci retracement. Key support lies at 182.05, the May 6 low. Clearance of this level would highlight an important bearish development. Initial firm support to watch is 184.01, Monday’s low.  

• RES 4: 0.8747 76.4% retracement of the Feb 27 - Mar 16 bear leg
• RES 3: 0.8742 High Mar 31 and Apr 1 and a bull trigger
• RES 2: 0.8731 High May 18 
• RES 1: 0.8660/82 50-day EMA / High May 29
• PRICE: 0.8631 @ 16:33 BST Jun 12
• SUP 1: 0.8620/18 Low Jun 10 / Low May 25
• SUP 2: 0.8610 Low Mar 16 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 0.8597 Low Aug 14 ‘25
• SUP 4: 0.8576 Low Jul 2 ‘25  

Trend signals in EURGBP are unchanged, they remain bearish and S/T gains are - for now - considered corrective. Sights are on key support at 0.8610, the Mar 16 low. Clearance of this level would highlight an important medium-term bearish breakout. Key resistance to watch is 0.8742, the Mar 31 and Apr 1 high. Initial firm resistance is 0.8660, the 50-day EMA, recently pierced. A clear break of this average would highlight a short-term bullish development.