EURJPY TECHS: Bull Cycle Remains Intact
- RES 4: 180.00 Psychological round number
- RES 3: 179.71 Top of a bull channel drawn from the Feb 28 low
- RES 2: 178.94 1.236 proj of the Jul 31 - Sep 29 - Oct 2 price swing
- RES 1: 178.00 Round number resistance
- PRICE: 176.40 @ 16:50 BST Oct 10
- SUP 1: 175.79/175.13 Low Oct 7 / High Sep 29
- SUP 2: 174.62 20-day EMA
- SUP 3: 173.24 High Oct 3 and a gap low on the daily chart
- SUP 4: 172.27 Low Oct 2 and a key medium-term support
The trend set-up in EURJPY is bullish despite the slippage of the weekly high. The fresh highs this week strengthen underlying bullish conditions. The cross has cleared resistance at 175.13, the Sep 29 high, to confirm a resumption of the primary uptrend. Note that the move higher this week also marks an acceleration of the bull cycle. Sights are on the 178.00 handle next. A break of this level would open 178.94, a Fibonacci projection. Key S/T support lies at 172.27, the Oct 2 low.
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EURJPY TECHS: MA Studies Highlight A Dominant Uptrend
- RES 4: 177.08 2.000 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - Apr 7 price swing
- RES 3: 175.43 High Jul 11 ‘24 and a key medium-term resistance
- RES 2: 174.86 1.764 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - Apr 7 price swing
- RES 1: 173.97 High Jul 28 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 172.73 @ 16:32 BST Sep 10
- SUP 1: 171.20 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: 169.73/45 Low Jul 31 / 23.6% of the Feb 28 - Jul 28 bull leg
- SUP 3: 168.46 Low Jul 1
- SUP 4: 167.46 Low Jun 23
The trend set-up in EURJPY is unchanged, it remains bullish and sights are on key resistance and the bull trigger at 173.97, the Jul 28 high. Clearance of this level would confirm a continuation of the bull phase. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position too, highlighting a primary uptrend. A break of 173.97 would open 174.86, a Fibonacci projection. Key support to watch lies at the 50-day EMA at 171.20.
US TSYS: Late SOFR/Treasury Option Roundup: Call Focus Ahead CPI
SOFR & Treasury options leaned towards upside calls Wednesday, focus on tomorrow's CPI inflation data after this morning's softer than expected PPI underpinned underlying futures. Rate futures drifting around post-data highs while projected rate cuts rebound from early morning (*) levels: Sep'25 at -28bp (-27.2bp), Oct'25 at -47.7bp (-45.9bp), Dec'25 at -70bp (-67.5bp), Jan'26 at -82.7bp (-79.9bp).
- SOFR Options:
- -8,000 SFRZ5 96.50 calls, 6.5 vs. 96.355/0.33%
- -2,500 SFRH6 97.00 calls, 9.0 vs. 96.595/0.26%
- -5,000 SFRZ5 96.00/96.12/96.25/96.37 call condors, 4.0 ref 96.355
- -7,000 SFRU5 96.00 calls, 1.0 ref 95.9825
- +4,000 SFRZ5 96.68/96.87/96.93 call flys, 1.25
- 10,000 0QZ5 96.87 put vs. 3QZ5 96.62 put spds 0.0 net/Blue Dec over
- Block/screen over 35,000 SFRZ5 96.43 calls, 8.0 ref 96.33 to -33.5
- Block, 2,870 SFRH6 96.87 calls 54.5 vs. 97.095/0.58%
- Block, 5,000 SFRH6 96.50/96.87/97.00 broken put trees, 4.75/splits vs. 97.11
- -9,000 SFRH6 96.00/96.31/96.43 broken put trees, 3.0
- 9,000 SFRH6 96.00 puts, 1.75 last
- 3,500 SFRV5 96.37/96.62/97.00 broken call flys ref 96.335
- +3,274 SFRZ5 96.50/96.62/96.68/96.81 call condors, 1.0
- 5,000 SFRX5 96.43/96.68 call spds
- 5,000 SFRV5 96.31 puts ref 96.335
- 2,000 SFRZ5 96.50/96.62 call spds ref 96.33
- +5,000 SFRU5 95.93/96.00/96.06 call flys, 2.5
- over 7,000 SFRU5 96.00/96.12/96.25 call flys, 0.5-0.75 ref 95.9725
- Treasury Options:
- -8,170 TYV5 112.5/113.5/114.5 call flys, 20 vs. 113-15/0.05%
- 6,800 TYV5 114.5/115 call spds ref 113-16.5
- 4,100 FVV5 110.5/111 call spds
- over 4,500 FVX5 110 calls, 31 ref 109-29 to -28.75
- 10,000 TYX5 111/112 put spds, 8 ref 113-15
- Block, 10,000 TYX5 113/114 call spds vs. 111.5/113 put spds 0.0 net
- 10,000 TYV5 113.5/TYX5 112.5 put spds, 2 net/Nov over
- 2,000 USV5 112/113/115 1x1x2 broken put trees
- 2,000 TYV5 113.5 straddles,
- +2,000 FVZ5 110/111 call spds vs. 108.75 put, 2.0 net ref 109-25
- 2,000 USX5 133 calls vs. 3,000 USX5 104 puts ref 116-27
- -1,000 TYZ5 113 straddles, 209 ref 113-10
- +5,000 TUV5 104/104.75 call over risk reversals, 2
- -4,000 TYZ5 130.5 calls w/ -2,000 TYZ5 104.5 puts ref 113-10.5
- 1,140 TYV5 112/112.5 3x2 put spds ref 113-09.5
- 2,200 TYV5 112.25 puts ref 113-08.5
US STOCKS: Late Equities Roundup: S&Ps, Nasdaq Paring Early Session Gains
- Stocks remain mixed late Wednesday, the weaker DJIA (after rising to new record high of 45,711.34 Tuesday) dragging the S&P eminis and Nasdaq indexes off early session highs. Currently, the DJIA trades down 237.69 points (-0.52%) at 45474.62, S&P E-Minis up 10 points (0.15%) at 6532, Nasdaq down 10.8 points (0%) at 21866.97.
- Information Technology and Utility/Energy sector shares continued to outperform in the second half, the tech sector led by software maker Oracle - rallying a whopping 38% after announcing it had secured "several billion-dollar contracts in it's latest quarter" the WSJ reported.
- Chip makers continued to underpin the tech sector: Broadcom +8.36%, Arista Networks +6.46%, NVIDIA +3.95% and Micron Technology +3.87%.
- Utility/Energy sector shares held gains as oil prices rebound (WTI +1.13 at 63.76): Vistra Corp +8.07%, Constellation Energy +7.80%, NRG Energy +5.22%, PG&E Corp +3.14%, APA Corp +5.42%, Baker Hughes +3.29% and Halliburton +3.22%.
- Conversely, Consumer Discretionary and Health Care sectors revered prior session gains, the former weighed by Amazon.com -3.02%, CarMax -2.70%, McDonald's -2.49%, Chipotle Mexican Grill -2.17%.
- Meanwhile, equipment and services shares weighed on the Health Care sector: Bio-Techne -4.82%, HCA Healthcare -4.38%, Insulet -4.22% and ResMed -3.52%.
